Do I ship it?

GamesChoose Your Own AdventureChoose Your Own Adventure + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Choose Your Own Adventure game?

Choose Your Own Adventure + Futuristic

Of 98 developers who shipped a Futuristic Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 134 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×5.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×707 the market median. Revenue is up 135% on the market; 134 games are announced against 57 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 135% on the market, 134 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choose Your Own Adventure + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 98
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $14k → $3.1k → $3.3k → $2.4k → $1.9k → $4.3k → $2.9k (still earning) → $4.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choose Your Own Adventure + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 98
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,490)
Top 5% $336k (exactly $335,731)
Developers, 2 yr 98
Released games 270
Announced 134
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 135% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choose Your Own Adventure; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, Visual Novel
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 23,290 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 52 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 134 games are announced against 57 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choose Your Own Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + FMVFair79 devs · median $54k · 74 announced
  3. + FlightFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  4. + SportsFair38 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Word GameFair55 devs · median $1.4k · 65 announced
  6. + MilitaryFair23 devs · median $898 · 24 announced
  7. + Score AttackFair14 devs · median $898 · 11 announced
  8. + IdlerFair41 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  9. + GamblingFair10 devs · median $494 · 14 announced
  10. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  11. + 3D FighterLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  12. + NavalPoor odds9 devs · median $14k · 16 announced

All 198 pairs on the Choose Your Own Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Bazaar $19.99 14,931 70% 448k $9.0M (exactly $8,954,121) Tempo
Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown $34.99 4,162 79% 125k $4.4M (exactly $4,368,851) Gamexcite
AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES - nirvanA Initiative older $39.99 3,571 86% 107k $4.3M (exactly $4,284,129) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
I Was a Teenage Exocolonist older $24.99 4,443 96% 133k $3.3M (exactly $3,330,917) Northway Games
Dreamfall Chapters older $24.99 3,213 82% 96k $2.4M (exactly $2,408,786) Red Thread Games
Caravan SandWitch older $24.99 2,797 88% 84k $2.1M (exactly $2,096,911) Studio Plane Toast
Projekt: Passion - Season 1 older $11.99 3,501 92% 105k $1.3M (exactly $1,259,310) Classy Lemon
Lacuna – A Sci-Fi Noir Adventure older $15.99 2,158 91% 65k $1.0M (exactly $1,035,193) DigiTales Interactive
No Sleep For Kaname Date - From AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES $39.99 835 79% 25k $1.0M (exactly $1,001,750) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Cyanotype Daydream -The Girl Who Dreamed the World- older $39.99 710 88% 21k $852k (exactly $851,787) Laplacian
Projekt: Passion - Season 2 $11.99 1,005 93% 30k $361k (exactly $361,498) Classy Lemon
Stellar Code $24.98 448 97% 13k $336k (exactly $335,731) Fragaria
Sexbot $14.99 723 86% 22k $325k (exactly $325,133) Llamamann Games
Dead in Antares $19.99 189 77% 5.7k $113k (exactly $113,343) Ishtar Games
FEED THE AI $5.99 557 90% 17k $100k (exactly $100,093) Weird Kid Games
Villain's Legacy $9.99 294 82% 8.8k $88k (exactly $88,112) Mad scientist lab
Lust Theory Season 3 $14.99 146 60% 4.4k $66k (exactly $65,656) Inceton Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.