Do I ship it?

GamesChoose Your Own AdventureChoose Your Own Adventure + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Choose Your Own Adventure game?

Choose Your Own Adventure + Female Protagonist

Of 376 developers who shipped a Female-Led Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 516 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.0k, ×8.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $810; 1 in 20 cleared $400k, ×852 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 516 games are announced against 206 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 516 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choose Your Own Adventure + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 376
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.5k → $24k → $7.8k → $3.2k → $4.0k → $3.1k → $4.0k (still earning) → $2.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choose Your Own Adventure + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 376
Bottom 30% $809 (exactly $809)
Median $4.0k (exactly $4,046)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $27,432)
Top 5% $405k (exactly $404,639)
Developers, 2 yr 376
Released games 1,218
Announced 516
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Choose Your Own Adventure; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Adventure, Choices Matter
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Emotional, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 80,250 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $810, median $4.0k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $400k.

3 in 10 developers made under $810. 8 in 10 of the 241 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 516 games are announced against 206 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choose Your Own Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + FMVFair79 devs · median $54k · 74 announced
  3. + FlightFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  4. + SportsFair38 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Word GameFair55 devs · median $1.4k · 65 announced
  6. + MilitaryFair23 devs · median $898 · 24 announced
  7. + Score AttackFair14 devs · median $898 · 11 announced
  8. + IdlerFair41 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  9. + GamblingFair10 devs · median $494 · 14 announced
  10. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  11. + 3D FighterLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  12. + NavalPoor odds9 devs · median $14k · 16 announced

All 198 pairs on the Choose Your Own Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey older $59.99 172,149 89% 5.2M $310M (exactly $309,816,555) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai)
Magical Girl Witch Trials $29.99 29,869 96% 896k $27M (exactly $26,873,139) Acacia, Re,AER
Life is Strange: True Colors older $59.99 12,360 88% 371k $22M (exactly $22,244,292) Deck Nine
Life is Strange: Before the Storm older $16.99 33,504 93% 1.0M $17M (exactly $17,076,989) Deck Nine, Feral Interactive (Mac), Fer… (Deck Nine, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
The Walking Dead: Season Two older $14.99 26,848 96% 805k $12M (exactly $12,073,546) Telltale Games
Life is Strange: Double Exposure $49.99 7,842 68% 235k $12M (exactly $11,760,647) Deck Nine Games
Love Is All Around older $9.99 36,203 93% 1.1M $11M (exactly $10,850,039) intiny
House Party older $24.99 13,968 85% 419k $10M (exactly $10,471,810) Eek! Games, LLC
The Walking Dead: The Final Season older $19.99 17,447 94% 523k $10M (exactly $10,462,966) Telltale Games
Tales from the Borderlands older $19.99 15,101 93% 453k $9.1M (exactly $9,056,070) Telltale Games
Life is Strange: Reunion $39.99 4,535 89% 136k $5.4M (exactly $5,440,640) Deck Nine Games
Five Hearts Under One Roof $19.99 5,881 91% 176k $3.5M (exactly $3,526,836) Storytaco
Magical Princess $14.99 7,636 96% 229k $3.4M (exactly $3,433,909) Neotro Inc., MAGI Inc.
Homicipher $13.99 7,821 96% 235k $3.3M (exactly $3,282,474) 八名木Games
Urban Myth Dissolution Center $17.99 5,930 88% 178k $3.2M (exactly $3,200,421) Hakababunko
School Days $14.99 6,023 77% 181k $2.7M (exactly $2,708,543) 白雨工作室
The Three Kingdoms: Rebirth $19.99 2,564 91% 77k $1.5M (exactly $1,537,631) 玛奇阿朵互娱科技, 山与海工作室
Five Hearts Under One Roof season2 $22.99 2,149 96% 64k $1.5M (exactly $1,482,165) Storytaco

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.