Games › Exploration › Exploration + Choose Your Own Adventure
Should I ship an Exploration Choose Your Own Adventure game?
Exploration + Choose Your Own Adventure
Of 510 developers who shipped an Exploration Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,081 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $300k, ×647 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 1,081 games are announced against 282 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $299 (exactly $299) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.3k (exactly $1,347) |
| Top 25% | $10k (exactly $10,180) |
| Top 5% | $307k (exactly $307,377) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 510 |
| Released games | 1,451 |
| Announced | 1,081 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Exploration
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Choose Your Own Adventure
- effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Exploration, Choose Your Own Adventure; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, RPG
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 204,151 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 289 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,081 games are announced against 282 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + SpaceshipsFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + WuxiaPoor odds
- + Extraction ShooterPoor odds
- + Martial ArtsPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + MMORPGPoor odds
- + FMVPoor odds
- + FarmingPoor odds
Comparable games
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey 2018 · $310M 
Crimson Desert Enhanced 2026 · $242M 
鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal 2023 · $114M 
The Elder Scrolls® Online 2017 · $81M 
Anno 1800 2019 · $54M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Assassin's Creed® Odyssey | older | $59.99 | 172,149 89% | 5.2M | $310M (exactly $309,816,555) | Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai) |
| | Crimson Desert Enhanced | $69.99 | 115,056 83% | 3.5M | $242M (exactly $241,583,083) | Pearl Abyss | |
| | 鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal | older | $19.99 | 190,184 56% | 5.7M | $114M (exactly $114,053,345) | 鬼谷工作室 |
| | The Elder Scrolls® Online | older | $19.99 | 134,421 82% | 4.0M | $81M (exactly $80,612,274) | ZeniMax Online Studios |
| | Anno 1800 | older | $59.99 | 29,854 81% | 896k | $54M (exactly $53,728,244) | Ubisoft Mainz |
 | Gothic 1 Remake | $49.99 | 26,258 88% | 788k | $39M (exactly $39,379,123) | Alkimia Interactive | |
 | Disney Dreamlight Valley | older | $39.99 | 22,027 92% | 661k | $26M (exactly $26,425,792) | Gameloft |
 | Anno 117: Pax Romana | $59.99 | 12,150 69% | 365k | $22M (exactly $21,866,355) | Ubisoft Mainz | |
 | Watch Dogs®: Legion | older | $59.99 | 11,891 56% | 357k | $21M (exactly $21,400,233) | Ubisoft Toronto |
 | Road 96 🛣️ | older | $19.96 | 22,118 91% | 664k | $13M (exactly $13,244,258) | Digixart |
 | Mon Bazou | $15.99 | 19,922 97% | 598k | $9.6M (exactly $9,556,583) | Santa Goat | |
 | Until Dawn™ | $59.99 | 3,564 82% | 107k | $6.4M (exactly $6,414,131) | Ballistic Moon | |
 | Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown | $34.99 | 4,162 79% | 125k | $4.4M (exactly $4,368,851) | Gamexcite | |
 | Homicipher | $13.99 | 7,821 96% | 235k | $3.3M (exactly $3,282,474) | 八名木Games | |
 | Urban Myth Dissolution Center | $17.99 | 5,930 88% | 178k | $3.2M (exactly $3,200,421) | Hakababunko | |
 | School Days | $14.99 | 6,023 77% | 181k | $2.7M (exactly $2,708,543) | 白雨工作室 | |
 | Guild Wars® Reforged | $19.99 | 3,265 87% | 98k | $2.0M (exactly $1,958,020) | ArenaNet® |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.