Do I ship it?

GamesChoose Your Own AdventureChoose Your Own Adventure + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Choose Your Own Adventure game?

Choose Your Own Adventure + Dystopian

Of 54 developers who shipped a Dystopian Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 154 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×7.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $570; 1 in 20 cleared $240k, ×518 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 154 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 154 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choose Your Own Adventure + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 54
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $47k → $2.6k → $2.2k → $2.4k → $14k → $5.9k → $3.1k (still earning) → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choose Your Own Adventure + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 54
Bottom 30% $564 (exactly $564)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $15,592)
Top 5% $246k (exactly $245,986)
Developers, 2 yr 54
Released games 158
Announced 154
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choose Your Own Adventure; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Choices Matter, Multiple Endings
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 7,506 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $570, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $570. 9 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 154 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choose Your Own Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + FMVFair79 devs · median $54k · 74 announced
  3. + FlightFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  4. + SportsFair38 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Word GameFair55 devs · median $1.4k · 65 announced
  6. + MilitaryFair23 devs · median $898 · 24 announced
  7. + Score AttackFair14 devs · median $898 · 11 announced
  8. + IdlerFair41 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  9. + GamblingFair10 devs · median $494 · 14 announced
  10. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  11. + 3D FighterLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  12. + NavalPoor odds9 devs · median $14k · 16 announced

All 198 pairs on the Choose Your Own Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Walking Dead: The Telltale Definitive Series older $49.99 36,594 96% 1.1M $55M (exactly $54,880,022) Skybound Games
Watch Dogs®: Legion older $59.99 11,891 56% 357k $21M (exactly $21,400,233) Ubisoft Toronto
Road 96 🛣️ older $19.96 22,118 91% 664k $13M (exactly $13,244,258) Digixart
Not For Broadcast older $24.99 10,337 94% 310k $7.7M (exactly $7,749,649) NotGames
Minds Beneath Us older $19.99 5,749 96% 172k $3.4M (exactly $3,447,675) BearBoneStudio
Beholder: Conductor $13.99 4,532 91% 136k $1.9M (exactly $1,902,080) Alawar
Beholder 3 older $17.99 2,275 63% 68k $1.2M (exactly $1,227,818) Paintbucket Games
7 Days to End with You older $7.99 3,327 87% 100k $797k (exactly $797,482) Lizardry
Road 96: Mile 0 older $12.96 1,880 67% 56k $731k (exactly $730,944) Digixart
Kemono Teatime $12.99 1,617 95% 49k $630k (exactly $630,145) Studio Lalala, Kotoneiro, WHO YOU
Sophie: The Girl From The Zone $14.99 547 87% 16k $246k (exactly $245,986) DavyCroquetteGame
The World Well: Blood of Caro $11.99 205 85% 6.2k $74k (exactly $73,738) Nimparth
Choice of Life: Samosbor $4.99 236 87% 7.1k $35k (exactly $35,329) Blazing Planet Studio
Future? No Thanks! $19.99 47 100% 1.4k $28k (exactly $28,186) Molleindustria
Inhuman Resources: A Literary Machination $14.99 61 90% 1.8k $27k (exactly $27,432) Finnegan Motors
Underchoice $7.99 113 72% 3.4k $27k (exactly $27,086) TG Indie
Saviour of the Wasteland $9.99 84 78% 2.5k $25k (exactly $25,175) PTGames
I.T. Never Ends $12.99 64 98% 1.9k $25k (exactly $24,941) Dadbod Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.