Do I ship it?

GamesChoose Your Own AdventureChoose Your Own Adventure + Detective

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Detective Choose Your Own Adventure game?

Choose Your Own Adventure + Detective

Of 173 developers who shipped a Detective Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 321 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×3.1 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $190k, ×403 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 321 games are announced against 98 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 321 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choose Your Own Adventure + Detective
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 173
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $718 → $2.1k → $6.6k → $2.5k → $1.5k → $6.2k → $1.2k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choose Your Own Adventure + Detective: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 173
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,468)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $12,288)
Top 5% $192k (exactly $191,636)
Developers, 2 yr 173
Released games 482
Announced 321
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
Detective
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Choose Your Own Adventure; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Visual Novel, Interactive Fiction
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Text-Based
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 42,145 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $190k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 88 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 321 games are announced against 98 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choose Your Own Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + FMVFair79 devs · median $54k · 74 announced
  3. + FlightFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  4. + SportsFair38 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Word GameFair55 devs · median $1.4k · 65 announced
  6. + MilitaryFair23 devs · median $898 · 24 announced
  7. + Score AttackFair14 devs · median $898 · 11 announced
  8. + IdlerFair41 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  9. + GamblingFair10 devs · median $494 · 14 announced
  10. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  11. + 3D FighterLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  12. + NavalPoor odds9 devs · median $14k · 16 announced

All 198 pairs on the Choose Your Own Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Magical Girl Witch Trials $29.99 29,869 96% 896k $27M (exactly $26,873,139) Acacia, Re,AER
The Wolf Among Us older $14.99 32,494 97% 975k $15M (exactly $14,612,552) Telltale
Batman - The Telltale Series older $14.99 15,060 87% 452k $6.8M (exactly $6,772,482) Telltale
The Great Ace Attorney Chronicles older $39.99 5,113 93% 153k $6.1M (exactly $6,134,066) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Pentiment older $19.99 9,231 95% 277k $5.5M (exactly $5,535,831) Obsidian Entertainment
Apollo Justice: Ace Attorney Trilogy older $49.99 3,261 88% 98k $4.9M (exactly $4,890,522) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES - nirvanA Initiative older $39.99 3,571 86% 107k $4.3M (exactly $4,284,129) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Ace Attorney Investigations Collection older $39.99 3,401 96% 102k $4.1M (exactly $4,080,180) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Batman: The Enemy Within - The Telltale Series older $14.99 8,877 92% 266k $4.0M (exactly $3,991,987) Telltale
The Operator older $13.99 8,515 91% 255k $3.6M (exactly $3,573,746) Bureau 81
Urban Myth Dissolution Center $17.99 5,930 88% 178k $3.2M (exactly $3,200,421) Hakababunko
No Sleep For Kaname Date - From AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES $39.99 835 79% 25k $1.0M (exactly $1,001,750) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Staffer Retro : A Supernatural Mystery Quest $24.99 922 89% 28k $691k (exactly $691,223) Team Tetrapod
Game of Fate 2: A Century's Promise $15.99 1,054 78% 32k $506k (exactly $505,604) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Game Of Fate 3:Clash Of Crowns $16.79 734 85% 22k $370k (exactly $369,716) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Best Served Cold $17.99 671 87% 20k $362k (exactly $362,139) Rogueside
Game of Fate: Chasing Through Time $10.99 986 88% 30k $325k (exactly $325,084) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Confidential Killings - A Detective Game $14.99 716 76% 21k $322k (exactly $321,985) BRANE, Lorenzo Boni
Detective Sherlock: Shadow Stalker · EA $19.99 428 88% 13k $257k (exactly $256,672) Gamercury

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.