Do I ship it?

GamesChoose Your Own AdventureChoose Your Own Adventure + Crime

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crime Choose Your Own Adventure game?

Choose Your Own Adventure + Crime

Of 78 developers who shipped a Crime Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 166 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $690; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×160 the market median. Revenue is up 135% on the market; 166 games are announced against 50 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 135% on the market, 166 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choose Your Own Adventure + Crime
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 78
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $2.4k → $14k → $11k → $719 → $1.8k → $3.5k (still earning) → $5.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choose Your Own Adventure + Crime: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 78
Bottom 30% $690 (exactly $690)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,998)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $14,985)
Top 5% $101k (exactly $100,716)
Developers, 2 yr 78
Released games 231
Announced 166
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 135% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
Crime
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Choose Your Own Adventure; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Adventure, Choices Matter
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 3,351 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $690, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $690. 8 in 10 of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 166 games are announced against 50 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choose Your Own Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + FMVFair79 devs · median $54k · 74 announced
  3. + FlightFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  4. + SportsFair38 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Word GameFair55 devs · median $1.4k · 65 announced
  6. + MilitaryFair23 devs · median $898 · 24 announced
  7. + Score AttackFair14 devs · median $898 · 11 announced
  8. + IdlerFair41 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  9. + GamblingFair10 devs · median $494 · 14 announced
  10. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  11. + 3D FighterLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  12. + NavalPoor odds9 devs · median $14k · 16 announced

All 198 pairs on the Choose Your Own Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Casting of Frank Stone™ older $29.99 5,580 62% 167k $5.0M (exactly $5,020,326) Supermassive Games
Apollo Justice: Ace Attorney Trilogy older $49.99 3,261 88% 98k $4.9M (exactly $4,890,522) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES - nirvanA Initiative older $39.99 3,571 86% 107k $4.3M (exactly $4,284,129) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Ace Attorney Investigations Collection older $39.99 3,401 96% 102k $4.1M (exactly $4,080,180) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
The Operator older $13.99 8,515 91% 255k $3.6M (exactly $3,573,746) Bureau 81
Late Shift older $14.99 7,762 86% 233k $3.5M (exactly $3,490,571) CtrlMovie
As Dusk Falls older $29.99 3,707 90% 111k $3.3M (exactly $3,335,188) INTERIOR/NIGHT
Far Away older $12.99 7,598 94% 228k $3.0M (exactly $2,960,941) Gratesca
Her Story older $9.99 8,367 89% 251k $2.5M (exactly $2,507,590) Sam Barlow
This Bed We Made older $24.99 3,187 90% 96k $2.4M (exactly $2,389,294) Lowbirth Games
No Sleep For Kaname Date - From AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES $39.99 835 79% 25k $1.0M (exactly $1,001,750) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Staffer Retro : A Supernatural Mystery Quest $24.99 922 89% 28k $691k (exactly $691,223) Team Tetrapod
Queen's Gamble $12.99 294 61% 8.8k $115k (exactly $114,572) Black Square Games
The Real Face of a VTuber $11.99 280 90% 8.4k $101k (exactly $100,716) 莉莉恩工作室
Phantom PHANTOM OF INFERNO NITRO ARCHIVE $29.99 108 94% 3.2k $97k (exactly $97,168) NITRO PLUS, NITRO ORIGIN
The Narcotic Operation $8.99 356 87% 11k $96k (exactly $96,013) Beijing Kuailai Technology Co., Ltd.
FRESHIE SISTERS $12.99 202 73% 6.1k $79k (exactly $78,719) Bimbo Sisters Games
The Restless Sheep & The Lone Wolf -A Tale of Cutthroat Lovers- $19.99 107 85% 3.2k $64k (exactly $64,168) CLOCKUP
WANTED: Wild Sluts 🔞 $14.99 140 68% 4.2k $63k (exactly $62,958) Lewd Star
Barbara: Sex Story $14.99 107 83% 3.2k $48k (exactly $48,118) Juicy Peach Games 🍑

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.