Do I ship it?

Games › Class-Based › Class-Based + Choose Your Own Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure Class-Based game?

Class-Based + Choose Your Own Adventure

Only 15 developers shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure Class-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Nameless: Slay Dragon, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.9k, ×3.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×739 the market median. Revenue is up 195% on the market; 22 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 195% on the market, 22 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Class-Based + Choose Your Own Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $299 → $16k → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Class-Based + Choose Your Own Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,500)
Median $4.9k (exactly $4,947)
Top 25% $94k (exactly $94,241)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 28
Announced 22
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $10.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 195% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Class-Based
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Class-Based, Choose Your Own Adventure; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, CRPG
Price point
$10.00 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $10.00.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 3,626 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $4.9k, 1 in 4 over $94k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Class-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair19 devs · median $6.6k · 22 announced
  2. + Bullet HeavenFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 38 announced
  3. + SupernaturalLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  4. + 2D PlatformerLong shot26 devs · median $539 · 30 announced
  5. + FPSPoor odds22 devs · median $70k · 70 announced
  6. + MMORPGPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  7. + Base BuildingPoor odds18 devs · median $33k · 44 announced
  8. + WarPoor odds17 devs · median $32k · 59 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds16 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  10. + MilitaryPoor odds17 devs · median $13k · 42 announced
  11. + Third-Person ShooterPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  12. + WargamePoor odds14 devs · median $9.4k · 28 announced

All 111 pairs on the Class-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

The Elder Scrolls® Online 2017 · $81M The Nameless: Slay Dragon 2024 · $1.1M Black Geyser: Couriers of Darkness 2022 · $831k The Use of Life 2025 · $458k ZENONIA 1 2026 · $129k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Elder Scrolls® Online older $19.99 134,421 82% 4.0M $81M (exactly $80,612,274) ZeniMax Online Studios
The Nameless: Slay Dragon $17.99 2,050 91% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385) The Nameless Epic
Black Geyser: Couriers of Darkness older $29.99 924 74% 28k $831k (exactly $831,323) GrapeOcean Technologies
The Use of Life $19.99 764 90% 23k $458k (exactly $458,171) だらねこげーむず/Daraneko Games
ZENONIA 1 $9.99 430 80% 13k $129k (exactly $128,871) Com2us Holdings, CFK Co., Ltd.
Afallon · EA $11.99 262 79% 7.9k $94k (exactly $94,241) Stargazing interactive
SKY THE SCRAPER $11.99 44 100% 1.3k $16k (exactly $15,827) Ryo Kobuchi
Gridiron Masters '98 · EA $9.99 27 81% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) Software98
Tales of Lyfael $12.99 18 88% 540 $7.0k (exactly $7,015) AdamWeb.sk
Brick Odyssey older $11.99 18 94% 540 $6.5k (exactly $6,475) MacMorgan
Into the M.A.W. $14.99 11 100% 330 $4.9k (exactly $4,947) Moonrise Studios
Azmar Quest - Text Based RPG $9.99 15 100% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Sevan Soukiassian
KindFolx $14.99 5 80% 150 $2.2k (exactly $2,248) Tristan Barona

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.