Do I ship it?

GamesFootball (Soccer)Football (Soccer) + Choices Matter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Football (Soccer) game?

Football (Soccer) + Choices Matter

Of 25 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Football (Soccer) game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 41 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×0.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $590k, ×396 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 41 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 41 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Football (Soccer) + Choices Matter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.0k → $3.6k (still earning) → $718 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Football (Soccer) + Choices Matter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $538 (exactly $538)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,239)
Top 25% $8.1k (exactly $8,092)
Top 5% $594k (exactly $593,901)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 42
Announced 41
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 425% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Football (Soccer)
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Football (Soccer), Choices Matter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Sports, Character Customization
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 67% positive over 2,164 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $8.0k, 1 in 20 over $590k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 41 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Football (Soccer) with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Life SimFair10 devs · median $10k · 16 announced
  2. + EconomyFair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + Local MultiplayerLong shot32 devs · median $899 · 40 announced
  4. + Local Co-OpLong shot17 devs · median $839 · 22 announced
  5. + Football (American)Long shot15 devs · median $719 · 9 announced
  6. + ArcadeLong shot64 devs · median $539 · 84 announced
  7. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 27 announced
  8. + Character CustomizationPoor odds32 devs · median $3.8k · 54 announced
  9. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds14 devs · median $3.6k · 30 announced
  10. + AdventurePoor odds15 devs · median $3.3k · 13 announced
  11. + Resource ManagementPoor odds15 devs · median $3.1k · 30 announced
  12. + ManagementPoor odds47 devs · median $2.7k · 83 announced

All 32 pairs on the Football (Soccer) page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Football Life Simulator · EA $19.99 1,567 68% 47k $940k (exactly $939,730) Ludu Arts
WE ARE FOOTBALL older $24.99 839 75% 25k $629k (exactly $628,998) Winning Streak Games
CAPTAIN TSUBASA 2: WORLD FIGHTERS $59.99 330 50% 9.9k $594k (exactly $593,901) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
GOAL! The Club Manager · EA older $29.99 364 33% 11k $327k (exactly $327,491) 2tainment
Goalgetter older $19.99 96 80% 2.9k $58k (exactly $57,571) netmin games
Club Manager 2016 older $19.99 66 50% 2.0k $40k (exactly $39,580) BigBlaze Games
Trivia Vault: Soccer Trivia older $13.99 75 66% 2.3k $31k (exactly $31,478) Ripknot Systems
Football Drama older $11.99 72 58% 2.2k $26k (exactly $25,898) Open Lab Games, Demigiant
Football Rising:Zero to Hero $14.99 54 90% 1.6k $24k (exactly $24,284) Den Spade
Super Slam Dunk Touchdown older $15.00 41 75% 1.2k $18k (exactly $18,450) Tipping Goat LLC
The Beautiful Game - Book One $9.99 55 92% 1.7k $16k (exactly $16,484) Daggum Games
Football Fictional World Simulator $14.99 24 75% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) keigo0221
Regista: Reign Your Football Club $4.99 68 67% 2.0k $10k (exactly $10,180) dicehit
Empire Eleven 2026 $9.99 27 74% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) NextStation Games
Sunday League Manager: Horse and Spoon $8.99 15 93% 450 $4.0k (exactly $4,046) christianosway
Goaldeck $9.99 12 91% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Pro Nobis Studio
Coastal Summit Sports: College Athletics 27 $9.99 12 25% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Coastal Summit Sports

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.