Do I ship it?

GamesChessChess + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Chess game?

Chess + Medieval

Only 16 developers shipped a Medieval Chess game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Once a Pawn a King, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $19k, ×41 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 25 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 25 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Chess + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $269 → $748 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Chess + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $598 (exactly $598)
Top 25% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 5% $19k (exactly $19,424)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 40
Announced 25
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Chess
effort 1 / 10 · high · fully specified rules and known engines
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Chess
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 140 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $1.1k, 1 in 20 over $19k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Chess with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SimulationFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  3. + PuzzleFair46 devs · median $598 · 43 announced
  4. + Turn-Based StrategyFair58 devs · median $449 · 86 announced
  5. + Choices MatterFair19 devs · median $419 · 20 announced
  6. + StrategyLong shot108 devs · median $419 · 138 announced
  7. + ArcadeLong shot12 devs · median $180 · 12 announced
  8. + RoguelikePoor odds29 devs · median $1.2k · 43 announced
  9. + RoguelitePoor odds25 devs · median $1.0k · 40 announced
  10. + DeckbuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $839 · 33 announced
  11. + FantasyPoor odds18 devs · median $599 · 39 announced
  12. + Card GamePoor odds15 devs · median $598 · 24 announced

All 25 pairs on the Chess page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Ouroboros King older $9.99 471 80% 14k $141k (exactly $141,159) Oriol Cosp Games
Once a Pawn a King $11.99 54 55% 1.6k $19k (exactly $19,424) Clover Bite
ChessCraft older $5.99 81 96% 2.4k $15k (exactly $14,556) Stuart Spence
Pawn of the Dead older $6.99 44 93% 1.3k $9.2k (exactly $9,227) Aslan Game Studio
Who Takes The Crown? $7.99 37 83% 1.1k $8.9k (exactly $8,869) devthedoug
Knight's Retreat older $2.99 74 93% 2.2k $6.6k (exactly $6,638) Minimol Games
Chess Knights: Shinobi older $2.99 67 83% 2.0k $6.0k (exactly $6,010) Minimol Games
Chess Knights: Viking Lands older $2.99 61 93% 1.8k $5.5k (exactly $5,472) Minimol Games
Chess of Mana $8.99 17 88% 510 $4.6k (exactly $4,585) Monk Monkey
Warpaint older $4.99 23 69% 690 $3.4k (exactly $3,443) Adam Thompson
A Game of Chaess $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Yohan Fabre (Gamezel)
Checkers $3.99 10 100% 300 $1.2k (exactly $1,197) Popoko VM Games
Chess Knightmare $4.99 5 100% 150 $748 (exactly $748) RanDev Software
CHESST $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) ANCIENT MOAI COOPERATIVE
Mind Over Monarchy $3.99 5 100% 150 $598 (exactly $598) Wise Puppy
Fool`s Road · EA $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Pikas
Rogue Mate $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) MiThiKaL Productions

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.