Do I ship it?

Games › Strategy › Strategy + Chess

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Chess Strategy game?

Strategy + Chess

Of 108 developers who shipped a Chess Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 138 more are announced.

Verdict: long shot, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $28k, ×46 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 138 games are announced against 79 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 138 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Chess
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 108
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $1.3k → $6.5k → $899 → $838 → $598 → $748 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Chess: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 108
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $419 (exactly $419)
Top 25% $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 5% $29k (exactly $28,794)
Developers, 2 yr 108
Released games 324
Announced 138
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Chess
effort 1 / 10 · high · fully specified rules and known engines

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy, Chess; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Board Game, Turn-Based Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 3,612 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $420, 1 in 4 over $1.7k, 1 in 20 over $28k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 8 in 10 of the 42 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 138 games are announced against 79 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

5D Chess With Multiverse Time Travel 2020 · $2.9M Shotgun King: The Final Checkmate 2022 · $1.8M Frozen Synapse 2011 · $831k Gambonanza 2026 · $721k Chess Ultra 2017 · $714k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
5D Chess With Multiverse Time Travel older $11.99 8,097 96% 243k $2.9M (exactly $2,912,491) Conor Petersen, Thunkspace, LLC
Shotgun King: The Final Checkmate older $9.99 5,918 92% 178k $1.8M (exactly $1,773,625) PUNKCAKE Delicieux
Frozen Synapse older $24.99 1,108 89% 33k $831k (exactly $830,668) Mode 7
Gambonanza $14.99 1,604 74% 48k $721k (exactly $721,319) Blukulélé
Chess Ultra older $12.99 1,832 76% 55k $714k (exactly $713,930) Ripstone
Battle Chess: Game of Kings™ older $29.99 360 52% 11k $324k (exactly $323,892) Olde Sküül, Sculptured Software
Sex Chess older $9.99 1,064 78% 32k $319k (exactly $318,881) Evil Boobs Cult
Master of Chess $19.99 290 83% 8.7k $174k (exactly $173,913) BRANE
King of the Bridge older $2.99 1,667 95% 50k $150k (exactly $149,530) Finn Schuuring
The Ouroboros King older $9.99 471 80% 14k $141k (exactly $141,159) Oriol Cosp Games
Passant: A Chess Roguelike $11.99 363 79% 11k $131k (exactly $130,571) Marc Makes Games
Humiliation Dungeon Survivors $9.99 325 87% 9.8k $97k (exactly $97,402) Naku Kinoko
Cat Chess $6.99 456 87% 14k $96k (exactly $95,623) Capricia Labs
Hyper Chess $2.99 321 92% 9.6k $29k (exactly $28,794) Grouch, SuitNtie
Below the Crown $14.99 64 96% 1.9k $29k (exactly $28,781) Misfits Attic
WizardChess $14.99 56 83% 1.7k $25k (exactly $25,183) TwoPM Studios
Chess Infinity $9.99 84 63% 2.5k $25k (exactly $25,175) Rockwater Games
Quantum Chess $14.99 49 63% 1.5k $22k (exactly $22,035) Quantum Realm Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.