Do I ship it?

GamesRogueliteRoguelite + Chess

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Chess Roguelite?

Roguelite + Chess

Of 25 developers who shipped a Chess Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×2.2 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×275 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 40 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 40 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelite + Chess
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $23k → $1.5k → $539 (still earning) → $360 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelite + Chess: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $360 (exactly $360)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $19,424)
Top 5% $131k (exactly $130,571)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 37
Announced 40
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 215% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Chess
effort 1 / 10 · high · fully specified rules and known engines

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelite, Chess; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Strategy, Deckbuilding
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 2,646 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelite with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-TimeFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  2. + ProgrammingFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  3. + VampiresFair60 devs · median $4.8k · 62 announced
  4. + TypingFair29 devs · median $2.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  6. + IdlerFair166 devs · median $1.5k · 235 announced
  7. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair23 devs · median $1.1k · 23 announced
  9. + Score AttackFair344 devs · median $719 · 450 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair94 devs · median $600 · 121 announced
  11. + LogicFair144 devs · median $599 · 143 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds21 devs · median $74k · 24 announced

All 229 pairs on the Roguelite page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Shotgun King: The Final Checkmate older $9.99 5,918 92% 178k $1.8M (exactly $1,773,625) PUNKCAKE Delicieux
Gambonanza $14.99 1,604 74% 48k $721k (exactly $721,319) Blukulélé
The Ouroboros King older $9.99 471 80% 14k $141k (exactly $141,159) Oriol Cosp Games
Pawnbarian older $9.99 450 91% 14k $135k (exactly $134,865) j4nw
Passant: A Chess Roguelike $11.99 363 79% 11k $131k (exactly $130,571) Marc Makes Games
Humiliation Dungeon Survivors $9.99 325 87% 9.8k $97k (exactly $97,402) Naku Kinoko
Chessplosion older $11.99 140 95% 4.2k $50k (exactly $50,358) C.T. Matthews
Below the Crown $14.99 64 96% 1.9k $29k (exactly $28,781) Misfits Attic
WizardChess $14.99 56 83% 1.7k $25k (exactly $25,183) TwoPM Studios
Chess Survivors older $4.99 155 83% 4.7k $23k (exactly $23,204) Aarimous
Yes, My Queen $12.99 50 82% 1.5k $19k (exactly $19,485) Wall Spaghetti
Once a Pawn a King $11.99 54 55% 1.6k $19k (exactly $19,424) Clover Bite
Tabulo $9.99 58 91% 1.7k $17k (exactly $17,383) Noah Games
Order Automatica $5.99 58 89% 1.7k $10k (exactly $10,423) New Beings
Chesscent $7.99 14 64% 420 $3.4k (exactly $3,356) Alex did it

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.