Do I ship it?

GamesDeckbuildingDeckbuilding + Chess

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Chess Deckbuilding?

Deckbuilding + Chess

Only 19 developers shipped a Chess Deckbuilding in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Gambonanza, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.8 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $720k, ×1519 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 33 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 33 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Deckbuilding + Chess
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $17k (still earning) → $360 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Deckbuilding + Chess: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $839 (exactly $839)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $19,485)
Top 5% $721k (exactly $721,319)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 29
Announced 33
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 275% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
Chess
effort 1 / 10 · high · fully specified rules and known engines

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Deckbuilding, Chess; all of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Roguelite, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 2,267 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $840, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $720k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 33 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Deckbuilding with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair44 devs · median $2.8k · 51 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair98 devs · median $2.5k · 137 announced
  3. + ArcadeFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Party GameFair22 devs · median $719 · 30 announced
  6. + SwordplayFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair34 devs · median $598 · 36 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced
  9. + LogicFair84 devs · median $419 · 118 announced
  10. + LovecraftianPoor odds19 devs · median $72k · 56 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $30k · 31 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds36 devs · median $26k · 64 announced

All 141 pairs on the Deckbuilding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Gambonanza $14.99 1,604 74% 48k $721k (exactly $721,319) Blukulélé
Pawnbarian older $9.99 450 91% 14k $135k (exactly $134,865) j4nw
Passant: A Chess Roguelike $11.99 363 79% 11k $131k (exactly $130,571) Marc Makes Games
Below the Crown $14.99 64 96% 1.9k $29k (exactly $28,781) Misfits Attic
WizardChess $14.99 56 83% 1.7k $25k (exactly $25,183) TwoPM Studios
Yes, My Queen $12.99 50 82% 1.5k $19k (exactly $19,485) Wall Spaghetti
Tabulo $9.99 58 91% 1.7k $17k (exactly $17,383) Noah Games
Usurper older $9.99 35 82% 1.1k $10k (exactly $10,490) Rogue Brain Studios
Order Automatica $5.99 58 89% 1.7k $10k (exactly $10,423) New Beings
Chess: The Lost Pieces older $7.99 20 70% 600 $4.8k (exactly $4,794) Yağız Selimoğlu
Chaos Pieces $11.99 5 100% 150 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Suzuki Ken
Solo Chess $9.99 5 60% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) NourSaiFR
PEGTURE: Peg Solitaire Roguelike $6.99 4 100% 120 $839 (exactly $839) Puff Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.