Do I ship it?

GamesRoguelikeRoguelike + Chess

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Chess Roguelike?

Roguelike + Chess

Of 29 developers who shipped a Chess Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×275 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 43 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 43 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Chess
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $23k → $3.1k → $1.0k → $1.2k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Chess: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,166)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $17,383)
Top 5% $131k (exactly $130,571)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 43
Announced 43
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Chess
effort 1 / 10 · high · fully specified rules and known engines

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelike, Chess; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Strategy, Deckbuilding
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Difficult, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 2,660 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Shotgun King: The Final Checkmate older $9.99 5,918 92% 178k $1.8M (exactly $1,773,625) PUNKCAKE Delicieux
Gambonanza $14.99 1,604 74% 48k $721k (exactly $721,319) Blukulélé
The Ouroboros King older $9.99 471 80% 14k $141k (exactly $141,159) Oriol Cosp Games
Pawnbarian older $9.99 450 91% 14k $135k (exactly $134,865) j4nw
Passant: A Chess Roguelike $11.99 363 79% 11k $131k (exactly $130,571) Marc Makes Games
Humiliation Dungeon Survivors $9.99 325 87% 9.8k $97k (exactly $97,402) Naku Kinoko
Chessplosion older $11.99 140 95% 4.2k $50k (exactly $50,358) C.T. Matthews
Below the Crown $14.99 64 96% 1.9k $29k (exactly $28,781) Misfits Attic
WizardChess $14.99 56 83% 1.7k $25k (exactly $25,183) TwoPM Studios
Chess Survivors older $4.99 155 83% 4.7k $23k (exactly $23,204) Aarimous
Yes, My Queen $12.99 50 82% 1.5k $19k (exactly $19,485) Wall Spaghetti
Once a Pawn a King $11.99 54 55% 1.6k $19k (exactly $19,424) Clover Bite
Tabulo $9.99 58 91% 1.7k $17k (exactly $17,383) Noah Games
Order Automatica $5.99 58 89% 1.7k $10k (exactly $10,423) New Beings
Shattered Chess $7.99 28 100% 840 $6.7k (exactly $6,712) Arti Works

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.