Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Card Game
Should I ship a Card Game Sandbox?
Sandbox + Card Game
Of 36 developers who shipped a Card Game Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 41 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $7.5k, ×12 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $4.5M, ×7207 the market median. Revenue is up 40% on the market; 41 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $719 (exactly $719) |
|---|---|
| Median | $7.5k (exactly $7,492) |
| Top 25% | $282k (exactly $281,723) |
| Top 5% | $4.5M (exactly $4,526,255) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 36 |
| Released games | 79 |
| Announced | 41 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 40% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox, Card Game; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Choices Matter
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Story Rich
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 92% positive over 85,911 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $720. 7 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 41 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
TCG Card Shop Simulator 2026 · $28M 
Tabletop Simulator 2015 · $28M 
Gamble With Your Friends 2026 · $4.5M 
Card Survival: Tropical Island 2022 · $2.2M 
Matchmaking Inc. 2025 · $1.6M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | TCG Card Shop Simulator | $19.99 | 47,357 96% | 1.4M | $28M (exactly $28,399,993) | OPNeon Games | |
| | Tabletop Simulator | older | $19.99 | 46,875 95% | 1.4M | $28M (exactly $28,110,937) | Berserk Games |
| | Gamble With Your Friends | $7.99 | 18,883 89% | 566k | $4.5M (exactly $4,526,255) | TEAM GWYF | |
| | Card Survival: Tropical Island | older | $24.99 | 2,962 94% | 89k | $2.2M (exactly $2,220,611) | WinterSpring Games |
| | Matchmaking Inc. | $8.99 | 5,773 87% | 173k | $1.6M (exactly $1,556,978) | Wave Games | |
 | Tiny Pasture | $5.99 | 7,055 92% | 212k | $1.3M (exactly $1,267,784) | CaveLiquid | |
 | Ballionaire | $12.34 | 2,398 85% | 72k | $888k (exactly $887,740) | newobject | |
 | Card Survival: Fantasy Forest | · EA | $21.99 | 1,135 76% | 34k | $749k (exactly $748,760) | WinterSpring Games |
 | Last Call BBS | older | $19.99 | 1,220 94% | 37k | $732k (exactly $731,634) | Zachtronics |
 | Destiny of Immortal | · EA | $11.99 | 1,763 80% | 53k | $634k (exactly $634,151) | LeiYun Games |
 | Card Cultivation | $14.99 | 694 70% | 21k | $312k (exactly $312,092) | DarkIndex | |
 | SkyBrew: Entropic Strategist | $17.99 | 522 75% | 16k | $282k (exactly $281,723) | ATRIC Games | |
 | Stack to Ascension | $12.99 | 331 54% | 9.9k | $129k (exactly $128,991) | Stack to Ascension |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.