Do I ship it?

GamesCard GameCard Game + Match 3

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Match 3 Card Game?

Card Game + Match 3

Of 35 developers who shipped a Match 3 Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150 in the last 2 years and $240 over 4, against a market of $120 for a 2 / 10 build. 25 developers shipped in the last year and 24 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 96635% on the market, 24 announced, ×1.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Card Game + Match 3
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $240 → $599 → $599 → $899 → $0 → $1.5k → $359 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Card Game + Match 3: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $2.9k (exactly $2,878)
Top 5% $56k (exactly $56,212)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 136
Announced 24
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data
Match 3
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Card Game, Match 3; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Deckbuilding, Roguelike, Puzzle
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 1,322 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $150, 1 in 4 over $2.8k, 1 in 20 over $56k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Card Game with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SteampunkFair15 devs · median $7.6k · 18 announced
  2. + Immersive SimFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 43 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.6k · 86 announced
  4. + DogsFair11 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  5. + MahjongFair28 devs · median $748 · 24 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair40 devs · median $719 · 54 announced
  7. + GamblingFair126 devs · median $600 · 167 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair62 devs · median $539 · 69 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair17 devs · median $537 · 15 announced
  10. + Board GameFair293 devs · median $479 · 382 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair198 devs · median $479 · 206 announced
  12. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $18k · 48 announced

All 159 pairs on the Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Legend of Bum-Bo older $14.99 5,654 80% 170k $2.5M (exactly $2,542,604) Edmund McMillen, James Interactive, Rid… (Edmund McMillen, James Interactive, Ridiculon)
ISEKAI QUEST older $3.99 3,679 85% 110k $440k (exactly $440,376) Studio Ginkgo
Dogpile $9.99 708 95% 21k $212k (exactly $212,188) Studio Folly, Toot Games, Foot
Faerie Solitaire Harvest older $14.99 143 79% 4.3k $64k (exactly $64,307) Subsoap
Art Reborn: Painting Connoisseur older $6.99 303 94% 9.1k $64k (exactly $63,539) MuccyGames
ANTHEM#9 $14.99 125 87% 3.8k $56k (exactly $56,212) koeda
Last Resort Island older $8.99 173 87% 5.2k $47k (exactly $46,658) rokaplay
Neon Village $9.99 146 86% 4.4k $44k (exactly $43,756) Encraft
Legends of Gems $8.99 139 81% 4.2k $37k (exactly $37,488) 南京西木优洛网络科技有限公司
Faerie Solitaire Dire · EA older $19.99 41 68% 1.2k $25k (exactly $24,588) Subsoap
Gem and Tarot $4.99 68 100% 2.0k $10k (exactly $10,180) SHEN DING
ChronoBabes $3.99 81 80% 2.4k $9.7k (exactly $9,696) Vinci
Match! The 12 CZ Wars $5.99 27 100% 810 $4.9k (exactly $4,852) CorvusCorax Studio
Dialoop -Roguelite Puzzle- $7.99 16 81% 480 $3.8k (exactly $3,835) Byking Inc.
Seven Seas Jewels 2 Collector's Edition $15.99 6 100% 180 $2.9k (exactly $2,878) Anawiki Games
A Ridiculous Waste of Time $9.99 6 100% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Ridiculous Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.