Do I ship it?

GamesCard GameCard Game + Interactive Fiction

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Interactive Fiction Card Game?

Card Game + Interactive Fiction

Of 30 developers who shipped an Interactive Fiction Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 61 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×13 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×9050 the market median. Revenue is up 85% on the market; 61 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 85% on the market, 61 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Card Game + Interactive Fiction
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $17k → $3.8k → $839 → $15k → $1.7k → $21k (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Card Game + Interactive Fiction: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $8.6k (exactly $8,573)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,076,926)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 74
Announced 61
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 85% on the market, supply 110% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data
Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Card Game, Interactive Fiction; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Adventure, Card Battler
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 11,696 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $8.5k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 61 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Card Game with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SteampunkFair15 devs · median $7.6k · 18 announced
  2. + Immersive SimFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 43 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.6k · 86 announced
  4. + DogsFair11 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  5. + MahjongFair28 devs · median $748 · 24 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair40 devs · median $719 · 54 announced
  7. + GamblingFair126 devs · median $600 · 167 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair62 devs · median $539 · 69 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair17 devs · median $537 · 15 announced
  10. + Board GameFair293 devs · median $479 · 382 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair198 devs · median $479 · 206 announced
  12. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $18k · 48 announced

All 159 pairs on the Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
I Was a Teenage Exocolonist older $24.99 4,443 96% 133k $3.3M (exactly $3,330,917) Northway Games
School Days $14.99 6,023 77% 181k $2.7M (exactly $2,708,543) 白雨工作室
Card Shark older $19.99 2,965 90% 89k $1.8M (exactly $1,778,110) Nerial
Retirement Simulator · EA older $13.99 3,757 34% 113k $1.6M (exactly $1,576,813) DoubleThink Studio
Forbidden Solitaire $15.99 2,245 96% 67k $1.1M (exactly $1,076,926) Grey Alien Games, Night Signal Entertai… (Grey Alien Games, Night Signal Entertainment)
Foretales older $19.99 779 87% 23k $467k (exactly $467,166) Alkemi
CARIMARA: Beneath the forlorn limbs $4.99 2,752 96% 83k $412k (exactly $411,974) Bastinus Rex
Crown Gambit $17.99 428 94% 13k $231k (exactly $230,992) WILD WITS GAMES
Love of Magic older $14.99 417 88% 13k $188k (exactly $187,525) Droid Productions
Sumire older $5.99 887 95% 27k $159k (exactly $159,394) GameTomo Team
Lust Poker Club $7.99 89 78% 2.7k $21k (exactly $21,333) Cutie Booty
OMEGA 6 The Triangle Stars $14.99 37 91% 1.1k $17k (exactly $16,639) Takaya Imamura, Happymeal, Pleocene
Star Dream Journey $8.99 55 60% 1.7k $15k (exactly $14,834) 明星志愿真人模拟器
Manic Magic Ciena's Desire $12.99 22 68% 660 $8.6k (exactly $8,573) Maidensoft
SIRE $4.99 39 100% 1.2k $5.8k (exactly $5,838) heartcase
Seven Seas Jewels 2 Collector's Edition $15.99 6 100% 180 $2.9k (exactly $2,878) Anawiki Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.