Do I ship it?

GamesCard GameCard Game + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Idler Card Game?

Card Game + Idler

Of 56 developers who shipped an Idler Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 64 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $120 for a 2 / 10 build. 41 developers shipped in the last year and 64 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 64 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Card Game + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 56
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $19k → $6.9k → $1.3k → $624 → $1.5k → $719 → $299 (still earning) → $298 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Card Game + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 56
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $3.4k (exactly $3,352)
Top 5% $54k (exactly $54,246)
Developers, 2 yr 56
Released games 126
Announced 64
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 155% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 34%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Card Game, Idler; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Incremental, Simulation, Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 10,169 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $360, 1 in 4 over $3.3k, 1 in 20 over $54k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 32 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 64 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Card Game with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SteampunkFair15 devs · median $7.6k · 18 announced
  2. + Immersive SimFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 43 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.6k · 86 announced
  4. + DogsFair11 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  5. + MahjongFair28 devs · median $748 · 24 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair40 devs · median $719 · 54 announced
  7. + GamblingFair126 devs · median $600 · 167 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair62 devs · median $539 · 69 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair17 devs · median $537 · 15 announced
  10. + Board GameFair293 devs · median $479 · 382 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair198 devs · median $479 · 206 announced
  12. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $18k · 48 announced

All 159 pairs on the Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Retirement Simulator · EA older $13.99 3,757 34% 113k $1.6M (exactly $1,576,813) DoubleThink Studio
Tiny Pasture $5.99 7,055 92% 212k $1.3M (exactly $1,267,784) CaveLiquid
This Ain’t Even Poker, Ya Joker $5.99 1,781 86% 53k $320k (exactly $320,046) Mash
The Girl's Moving Castle $9.99 181 88% 5.4k $54k (exactly $54,246) Destined game Studio
All About Luck $10.99 134 91% 4.0k $44k (exactly $44,180) Flow Universe
CyberTD older $19.99 50 66% 1.5k $30k (exactly $29,985) Clockwork Origins
Idle Quest Simulator $4.99 183 78% 5.5k $27k (exactly $27,395) 所以然
Pay 2 Win: The World is Mine $14.99 59 81% 1.8k $27k (exactly $26,532) Patriots Division
希望之城 The City Of Hope older $6.99 126 68% 3.8k $26k (exactly $26,422) 家里蹲工作室
Idle Taoist Mage Warrior older $4.99 128 85% 3.8k $19k (exactly $19,162) okyakusama
FISHTOPIA $8.99 70 87% 2.1k $19k (exactly $18,879) BountyGames
ENCOUNTER BAR $0.99 590 78% 18k $18k (exactly $17,523) 2R
Card Corner $4.99 75 76% 2.3k $11k (exactly $11,228) Conradical Games
BULK $6.49 41 75% 1.2k $8.0k (exactly $7,983) Carlos 'Monty' Montamarta

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.