Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based › Turn-Based + Card Battler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Card Battler Turn-Based game?

Turn-Based + Card Battler

Of 123 developers who shipped a Card Battler Turn-Based game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 187 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $12k, ×19 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $850k, ×1355 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 187 games are announced against 76 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 18.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 187 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based + Card Battler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 123
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $146k → $66k → $37k → $16k → $35k → $7.3k → $12k (still earning) → $4.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based + Card Battler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 123
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Median $12k (exactly $11,873)
Top 25% $79k (exactly $79,499)
Top 5% $851k (exactly $850,715)
Developers, 2 yr 123
Released games 311
Announced 187
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Card Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · card rules plus simple encounter logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based, Card Battler; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Deckbuilding, Roguelike, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Difficult, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 55,032 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $79k, 1 in 20 over $850k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 5 in 10 of the 53 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 187 games are announced against 76 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + DragonsStrong odds7 devs · median $53k · 7 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashStrong odds8 devs · median $14k · 1 announced
  4. + SandboxFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  5. + HorrorFair16 devs · median $32k · 18 announced
  6. + CraftingFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  10. + ChessFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  11. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $294k · 7 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced

All 110 pairs on the Turn-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Slay the Spire 2019 · $144M Balatro 2024 · $72M Library Of Ruina 2021 · $37M 9 Kings 2025 · EA · $13M Chrono Ark 2024 · $9.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Slay the Spire older $24.99 191,765 97% 5.8M $144M (exactly $143,766,220) Mega Crit
Balatro older $14.99 160,715 97% 4.8M $72M (exactly $72,273,536) LocalThunk
Library Of Ruina older $29.99 40,605 94% 1.2M $37M (exactly $36,532,318) ProjectMoon
9 Kings · EA $19.99 21,352 92% 641k $13M (exactly $12,804,794) Sad Socket
Chrono Ark older $24.99 12,623 90% 379k $9.5M (exactly $9,463,463) Al Fine
Backpack Battles $14.99 18,933 91% 568k $8.5M (exactly $8,514,170) PlayWithFurcifer
Griftlands older $19.99 13,440 93% 403k $8.1M (exactly $8,059,968) Klei Entertainment
Across the Obelisk older $19.99 10,689 80% 321k $6.4M (exactly $6,410,193) Dreamsite Games
Wildfrost older $19.99 8,175 82% 245k $4.9M (exactly $4,902,548) Deadpan Games, Gaziter
Dicey Dungeons older $14.99 10,444 88% 313k $4.7M (exactly $4,696,667) Terry Cavanagh
Die in the Dungeon $14.99 3,239 92% 97k $1.5M (exactly $1,456,578) ATICO
Yao-Guai Hunter $16.99 2,082 83% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,061,195) MyACG Studio
SpellRogue $19.99 1,566 86% 47k $939k (exactly $939,130) Guidelight Games
Breachway · EA $19.99 1,419 74% 43k $851k (exactly $850,974) Edgeflow Studio
LONESTAR $12.99 2,183 90% 65k $851k (exactly $850,715) Math Tide
Black Jacket $14.99 1,751 91% 53k $787k (exactly $787,425) Mi'pu'mi Games GmbH
Death Howl $19.99 1,301 92% 39k $780k (exactly $780,210) The Outer Zone
Deck of Haunts $19.99 1,206 84% 36k $723k (exactly $723,238) Mantis

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.