Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Card Battler Tactical RPG?

Tactical RPG + Card Battler

Of 59 developers who shipped a Card Battler Tactical RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 107 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×5.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $490k, ×794 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 107 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 107 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical RPG + Card Battler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 59
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $2.5k → $2.1k → $4.3k → $748 → $5.9k → $8.1k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical RPG + Card Battler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 59
Bottom 30% $748 (exactly $748)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,118)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $15,467)
Top 5% $498k (exactly $498,351)
Developers, 2 yr 59
Released games 138
Announced 107
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Card Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · card rules plus simple encounter logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tactical RPG, Card Battler; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Card Game, Deckbuilding
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 6,344 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $490k.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 8 in 10 of the 32 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 107 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  3. + Space SimFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair21 devs · median $839 · 26 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  6. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  7. + Colony SimPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced
  8. + SandboxPoor odds42 devs · median $20k · 102 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds61 devs · median $18k · 81 announced
  10. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $17k · 27 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds23 devs · median $10k · 38 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds80 devs · median $8.7k · 143 announced

All 145 pairs on the Tactical RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Marvel's Midnight Suns 2022 · $31M Across the Obelisk 2022 · $6.4M Trials of Fire 2021 · $1.8M Aces & Adventures 2023 · $1.3M Warhammer Underworlds - Shadespire Edition (Classic) 2020 · $953k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
Across the Obelisk older $19.99 10,689 80% 321k $6.4M (exactly $6,410,193) Dreamsite Games
Trials of Fire older $19.99 2,975 86% 89k $1.8M (exactly $1,784,107) Whatboy Games
Aces & Adventures older $19.99 2,220 89% 67k $1.3M (exactly $1,331,334) Triple.B.Titles
Warhammer Underworlds - Shadespire Edition (Classic) older $29.99 1,059 70% 32k $953k (exactly $952,782) Steel Sky Productions, Tin Man Games
Tales & Tactics older $17.99 1,737 80% 52k $937k (exactly $937,459) Table 9 Studio
Oaken Tower · EA $9.99 3,024 89% 91k $906k (exactly $906,293) Bocary Studios
STARDUST: Wish of Witch $24.99 728 81% 22k $546k (exactly $545,782) Kniv Studio Co., Ltd.
Nowhere Prophet older $24.99 721 77% 22k $541k (exactly $540,534) Sharkbomb Studios
Knights in Tight Spaces $19.99 831 69% 25k $498k (exactly $498,351) Ground Shatter
The Royal Writ $14.99 425 80% 13k $191k (exactly $191,122) Save Sloth Studios
Hive Blight · EA $12.49 367 94% 11k $138k (exactly $137,515) OptizOnion
YGGDRA REFRAIN $9.99 311 79% 9.3k $93k (exactly $93,207) BD
Golden Swirl $19.99 149 92% 4.5k $89k (exactly $89,355) Snako Production
Deck of Souls $11.99 153 84% 4.6k $55k (exactly $55,034) Bigboot Studios
Song's Fantasy $7.99 229 55% 6.9k $55k (exactly $54,891) 南十字座工作室
Re:Night $13.99 127 88% 3.8k $53k (exactly $53,302) Seahorse Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.