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Should I ship a Card Battler Sandbox?
Sandbox + Card Battler
Only 18 developers shipped a Card Battler Sandbox in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Out of the Park Baseball 26, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $25k, ×40 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×1956 the market median. Revenue is up 815% on the market; 21 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $2.5k (exactly $2,516) |
|---|---|
| Median | $25k (exactly $24,875) |
| Top 25% | $129k (exactly $128,991) |
| Top 5% | $1.2M (exactly $1,228,254) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 18 |
| Released games | 31 |
| Announced | 21 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 815% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Sandbox
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Card Battler
- effort 3 / 10 · high · card rules plus simple encounter logic
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox, Card Battler; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Choices Matter, Card Game
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Funny
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 9,685 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.6k. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Moonstone Island | older | $19.99 | 4,063 84% | 122k | $2.4M (exactly $2,436,581) | Studio Supersoft |
| | Out of the Park Baseball 26 | $49.99 | 819 82% | 25k | $1.2M (exactly $1,228,254) | Out of the Park Developments | |
| | Ballionaire | $12.34 | 2,398 85% | 72k | $888k (exactly $887,740) | newobject | |
| | Guilty as Sock! | $5.50 | 4,836 89% | 145k | $798k (exactly $797,940) | Demon Max | |
| | Card Cultivation | $14.99 | 694 70% | 21k | $312k (exactly $312,092) | DarkIndex | |
| | Erannorth Chronicles | older | $20.99 | 407 85% | 12k | $256k (exactly $256,288) | Spyridon Thalassinos |
| | Love of Magic | older | $14.99 | 417 88% | 13k | $188k (exactly $187,525) | Droid Productions |
| | Stack to Ascension | $12.99 | 331 54% | 9.9k | $129k (exactly $128,991) | Stack to Ascension | |
| | Sinners Landing | $19.99 | 180 86% | 5.4k | $108k (exactly $107,946) | Flexible Media | |
| | Song's Fantasy | $7.99 | 229 55% | 6.9k | $55k (exactly $54,891) | 南十字座工作室 | |
| | ploink | $12.99 | 91 96% | 2.7k | $35k (exactly $35,463) | Pyrocreep | |
| | Claymores of the Lost Kingdom | $9.99 | 83 67% | 2.5k | $25k (exactly $24,875) | Ultaan Games | |
| | Infest | $14.99 | 24 75% | 720 | $11k (exactly $10,793) | Chute Apps |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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