Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Card Battler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Card Battler Sandbox?

Sandbox + Card Battler

Only 18 developers shipped a Card Battler Sandbox in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Out of the Park Baseball 26, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $25k, ×40 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×1956 the market median. Revenue is up 815% on the market; 21 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 39.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 815% on the market, 21 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Card Battler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.9k → $798k → $8.8k → $55k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Card Battler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Median $25k (exactly $24,875)
Top 25% $129k (exactly $128,991)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,228,254)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 31
Announced 21
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 815% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Card Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · card rules plus simple encounter logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Card Battler; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Choices Matter, Card Game
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 9,685 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.6k, median $25k, 1 in 4 over $120k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.6k. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Moonstone Island older $19.99 4,063 84% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,436,581) Studio Supersoft
Out of the Park Baseball 26 $49.99 819 82% 25k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,254) Out of the Park Developments
Ballionaire $12.34 2,398 85% 72k $888k (exactly $887,740) newobject
Guilty as Sock! $5.50 4,836 89% 145k $798k (exactly $797,940) Demon Max
Card Cultivation $14.99 694 70% 21k $312k (exactly $312,092) DarkIndex
Erannorth Chronicles older $20.99 407 85% 12k $256k (exactly $256,288) Spyridon Thalassinos
Love of Magic older $14.99 417 88% 13k $188k (exactly $187,525) Droid Productions
Stack to Ascension $12.99 331 54% 9.9k $129k (exactly $128,991) Stack to Ascension
Sinners Landing $19.99 180 86% 5.4k $108k (exactly $107,946) Flexible Media
Song's Fantasy $7.99 229 55% 6.9k $55k (exactly $54,891) 南十字座工作室
ploink $12.99 91 96% 2.7k $35k (exactly $35,463) Pyrocreep
Claymores of the Lost Kingdom $9.99 83 67% 2.5k $25k (exactly $24,875) Ultaan Games
Infest $14.99 24 75% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) Chute Apps

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.