Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-BasedTurn-Based + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist Turn-Based game?

Turn-Based + Capitalism

Only 8 developers shipped a Capitalist Turn-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Insider Trading, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $20k against a market of $630. 16 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 31.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 725% on the market, 16 announced, ×5.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Turn-Based + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Median $20k (exactly $19,611)
Top 25% $61k (exactly $60,570)
Top 5% $232k (exactly $232,020)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 27
Announced 16
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 725% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $12.89.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 16,294 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.6k, median $20k, 1 in 4 over $60k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.6k. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + DragonsStrong odds7 devs · median $53k · 7 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashStrong odds8 devs · median $14k · 1 announced
  4. + SandboxFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  5. + HorrorFair16 devs · median $32k · 18 announced
  6. + CraftingFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  10. + ChessFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  11. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $294k · 7 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced

All 110 pairs on the Turn-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Democracy 3 older $24.99 6,245 73% 187k $4.7M (exactly $4,681,876) Positech Games
Dungeons & Degenerate Gamblers older $14.99 2,988 81% 90k $1.3M (exactly $1,343,704) Purple Moss Collectors
City of Gangsters older $29.99 1,332 73% 40k $1.2M (exactly $1,198,400) SomaSim
GearCity older $19.99 1,417 89% 43k $850k (exactly $849,775) Visual Entertainment And Technologies
Hundred Days - Winemaking Simulator older $24.99 1,033 77% 31k $774k (exactly $774,440) Broken Arms Games
Evil Bank Manager older $11.99 1,663 76% 50k $598k (exactly $598,181) Hamsters Gaming
Insider Trading $12.89 600 79% 18k $232k (exactly $232,020) Naiive
The Last Federation older $19.99 380 72% 11k $228k (exactly $227,886) Arcen Games
Picross Fairytale - nonogram: Red Riding Hood secret older $14.99 235 73% 7.1k $106k (exactly $105,680) Somer Games
Lawgivers older $6.99 401 82% 12k $84k (exactly $84,090) Damian Bernardi
Imperial Ambitions $19.99 101 81% 3.0k $61k (exactly $60,570) aoiti
Barrage $14.99 78 80% 2.3k $35k (exactly $35,077) Cranio Lab
Inventorix $4.99 131 100% 3.9k $20k (exactly $19,611) Arcaludi
Fortune Avenue · EA $6.99 63 84% 1.9k $13k (exactly $13,211) Binogure Studio 🐺
Call Center Tycoon $6.99 12 66% 360 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) zedzag
Roulette Pro Simulator · EA $5.99 2 0% 60 $359 (exactly $359) Hard Shark Games
Concord Quarter $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Morass

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.