Do I ship it?

GamesChoose Your Own AdventureChoose Your Own Adventure + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist Choose Your Own Adventure game?

Choose Your Own Adventure + Capitalism

Of 28 developers who shipped a Capitalist Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 76 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×6.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $44k, ×94 the market median. Revenue is up 140% on the market; 76 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 76 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choose Your Own Adventure + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.6k → $449 → $898 → $7.7k → $2.1k → $2.9k → $1.2k (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choose Your Own Adventure + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $718 (exactly $718)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,876)
Top 25% $7.7k (exactly $7,727)
Top 5% $45k (exactly $44,768)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 96
Announced 76
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choose Your Own Adventure; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Economy, Life Sim
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Dark Humor
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 15,814 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $7.7k, 1 in 20 over $44k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 9 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 76 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choose Your Own Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + FMVFair79 devs · median $54k · 74 announced
  3. + FlightFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  4. + SportsFair38 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Word GameFair55 devs · median $1.4k · 65 announced
  6. + MilitaryFair23 devs · median $898 · 24 announced
  7. + Score AttackFair14 devs · median $898 · 11 announced
  8. + IdlerFair41 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  9. + GamblingFair10 devs · median $494 · 14 announced
  10. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  11. + 3D FighterLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  12. + NavalPoor odds9 devs · median $14k · 16 announced

All 198 pairs on the Choose Your Own Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Bazaar $19.99 14,931 70% 448k $9.0M (exactly $8,954,121) Tempo
New Tales from the Borderlands older $39.99 1,737 29% 52k $2.1M (exactly $2,083,879) Gearbox Software
STONKS-9800: Stock Market Simulator · EA older $9.99 3,124 95% 94k $936k (exactly $936,263) TERNOX
Deadwater Saloon older $19.99 186 63% 5.6k $112k (exactly $111,544) Tanglefoot Games
Epic Manager - Create Your Own Adventuring Agency! older $17.99 184 61% 5.5k $99k (exactly $99,305) ManaVoid Entertainment
The Zodiac Trial older $14.99 142 95% 4.3k $64k (exactly $63,857) Themisian
Wanderlust: Travel Stories older $14.99 119 83% 3.6k $54k (exactly $53,514) Different Tales
Handyman Corporation older $11.99 136 47% 4.1k $49k (exactly $48,919) Potato Games
Egg Squeeze $3.99 374 98% 11k $45k (exactly $44,768) MATTER GAMES
WebCum Secrets 🔞💦 older $9.99 134 75% 4.0k $40k (exactly $40,160) Play and Cum 💦
Eggstreme Farming $6.99 169 73% 5.1k $35k (exactly $35,439) Sagitta Studios
I.T. Never Ends $12.99 64 98% 1.9k $25k (exactly $24,941) Dadbod Games
Pocket Boss $4.99 134 89% 4.0k $20k (exactly $20,060) Langfilm, Mario von Rickenbach
Life in red line · EA $17.99 26 76% 780 $14k (exactly $14,032) Pecha games
中年失业模拟器2-When a man lose his job 2 $5.99 43 60% 1.3k $7.7k (exactly $7,727) Kwing works
Silk Roads II: Paths of Fortune $9.99 24 75% 720 $7.2k (exactly $7,193) Priory Games
Baskin All-In: The Family · EA $8.99 26 65% 780 $7.0k (exactly $7,012) TheSugarRay
Liquor And Wine Shop Simulator - Store Simulator $8.99 23 47% 690 $6.2k (exactly $6,203) Mascot Bro Studio, PixelHixel Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.