Do I ship it?

GamesPvPPvP + Bullet Time

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Bullet Time game?

PvP + Bullet Time

Only 17 developers shipped a PvP Bullet Time game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Out of Action, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $120 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build. 12 developers shipped in the last year and 30 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 30 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Bullet Time
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $180 → $22k → $719 → $899 → $0 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Bullet Time: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $119 (exactly $119)
Top 25% $1.7k (exactly $1,688)
Top 5% $549k (exactly $549,325)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 65
Announced 30
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 140% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Bullet Time
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Bullet Time; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, FPS, Shooter
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Stylized, Gore
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 9 games average 77% positive over 1,006 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $120, 1 in 4 over $1.6k, 1 in 20 over $540k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
WARNO older $39.99 14,502 80% 435k $17M (exactly $17,398,049) Eugen Systems
Blazing Beaks older $14.99 2,043 84% 61k $919k (exactly $918,737) Applava
BattleGroupVR older $24.99 858 92% 26k $643k (exactly $643,243) SpaceOwl Games
Out of Action · EA $19.99 916 77% 27k $549k (exactly $549,325) Doku Games LTD
Comanche older $19.99 322 51% 9.7k $193k (exactly $193,103) NUKKLEAR, Ashborne Games
Soldat 2 · EA older $7.99 386 85% 12k $93k (exactly $92,524) Transhuman Design
Retimed older $14.99 142 90% 4.3k $64k (exactly $63,857) Team Maniax
Kill to Collect older $9.99 168 67% 5.0k $50k (exactly $50,350) Pieces Interactive
Grapple Hoops older $11.99 75 73% 2.3k $27k (exactly $26,978) Andreas Georgiou
Parkour Labs older $12.99 56 92% 1.7k $22k (exactly $21,823) SoyKhaler
Source Code $19.99 33 60% 990 $20k (exactly $19,790) Blitzball.Inc
Dunk Dunk $6.99 14 92% 420 $2.9k (exactly $2,936) Badgerhammer Limited
TYPE $4.99 17 88% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) Parcyval
BLOODSHOT · EA $4.69 12 100% 360 $1.7k (exactly $1,688) Hardly Hyperbolic
Golfslinger $7.99 6 100% 180 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) Chaos Cactus
ShadowStrikeVR · EA $9.99 3 0% 90 $899 (exactly $899) Charming Game Studio
Aluna Rift $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Ben Lowther-Saul
PongBall $1.99 2 50% 60 $119 (exactly $119) NerxStudio
BlastLast $6.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Alexoid Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.