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Should I ship a Visual Novel Bullet Hell?
Bullet Hell + Visual Novel
Of 24 developers who shipped a Visual Novel Bullet Hell in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×6.3 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $41k, ×88 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 32 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $598 (exactly $598) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.0k (exactly $2,992) |
| Top 25% | $15k (exactly $14,685) |
| Top 5% | $42k (exactly $41,734) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 24 |
| Released games | 82 |
| Announced | 32 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Bullet Hell
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Bullet Hell, Visual Novel; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Arcade
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, 2D, Cute
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 78% positive over 736 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Bullet Hell with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + SuperheroStrong odds
- + FaithFair
- + VampiresFair
- + Creature CollectorFair
- + Strategy RPGFair
- + PiratesFair
- + CatsFair
- + HackingFair
- + Time ManagementFair
- + Card BattlerFair
- + DemonsFair
- + Naval CombatFair
Comparable games
Noctuary 2023 · $2.1M 
Touhou Danmaku Kagura Phantasia Lost 2024 · $1.4M 
ISEKAI FRONTLINE 2023 · $216k 
Miss Neko: Pirates 2024 · $167k 
QP Shooting - Dangerous!! 2014 · $91k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Noctuary | older | $29.99 | 2,371 94% | 71k | $2.1M (exactly $2,133,189) | Gratesca |
| | Touhou Danmaku Kagura Phantasia Lost | older | $19.99 | 2,266 81% | 68k | $1.4M (exactly $1,358,920) | Alliance Arts, UnknownX |
| | ISEKAI FRONTLINE | older | $3.99 | 1,806 77% | 54k | $216k (exactly $216,178) | Studio Ginkgo |
| | Miss Neko: Pirates | older | $3.99 | 1,395 83% | 42k | $167k (exactly $166,982) | Orangeee |
| | QP Shooting - Dangerous!! | older | $7.99 | 378 94% | 11k | $91k (exactly $90,607) | Orange_Juice |
 | Touhou Gensokyo Odyssey | older | $6.99 | 357 94% | 11k | $75k (exactly $74,863) | Kronington |
 | NOISZ | older | $19.99 | 116 95% | 3.5k | $70k (exactly $69,565) | Anarch Entertainment |
 | 200% Mixed Juice! | older | $6.99 | 277 86% | 8.3k | $58k (exactly $58,087) | Orange_Juice |
 | Asterika: Phantom Rose Refrain | $14.99 | 126 95% | 3.8k | $57k (exactly $56,662) | makaroll | |
 | Hentai Girl Division | older | $1.99 | 895 81% | 27k | $53k (exactly $53,432) | Mature Games |
 | Vilde | $15.99 | 87 74% | 2.6k | $42k (exactly $41,734) | Chaotic Minds | |
 | RANDOMAX | $9.99 | 67 92% | 2.0k | $20k (exactly $20,080) | ASTRO PORT | |
 | Sexy Iron Maidens | $4.99 | 123 69% | 3.7k | $18k (exactly $18,413) | Earl Marx | |
 | Rhya's Crusade: The Aradia's Reavers | $14.99 | 39 66% | 1.2k | $18k (exactly $17,538) | Black Fortress Games | |
 | 无梦少女 DreamlessGirl | $9.99 | 49 65% | 1.5k | $15k (exactly $14,685) | REZEROR STUDIO | |
 | Witch & Bun Cats | $7.99 | 57 77% | 1.7k | $14k (exactly $13,663) | Night Owl Games | |
 | Soul Stalker | $4.99 | 77 77% | 2.3k | $12k (exactly $11,527) | Radhood, Conradical Games | |
 | WHISPERS OF GODDESS | $11.49 | 30 50% | 900 | $10k (exactly $10,341) | Ion studio | |
 | SORRY SURVIVOR | $2.99 | 81 85% | 2.4k | $7.3k (exactly $7,266) | TakenokoGames |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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