Do I ship it?

Games › Bullet Hell › Bullet Hell + Traditional Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Traditional Roguelike Bullet Hell?

Bullet Hell + Traditional Roguelike

Of 39 developers who shipped a Traditional Roguelike Bullet Hell in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×1.1 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $31k, ×65 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 37 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 37 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bullet Hell + Traditional Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 39
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $210 → $2.3k → $1.5k → $2.3k → $479 (still earning) → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bullet Hell + Traditional Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 39
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $537 (exactly $537)
Top 25% $3.4k (exactly $3,352)
Top 5% $31k (exactly $31,029)
Developers, 2 yr 39
Released games 57
Announced 37
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Traditional Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Bullet Hell, Traditional Roguelike; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Roguelite, Action Roguelike
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 1,063 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $540, 1 in 4 over $3.3k, 1 in 20 over $31k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 9 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bullet Hell with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SuperheroStrong odds11 devs · median $3.4k · 7 announced
  2. + FaithFair26 devs · median $17k · 29 announced
  3. + VampiresFair43 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair24 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  5. + Strategy RPGFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  6. + PiratesFair14 devs · median $2.0k · 20 announced
  7. + CatsFair44 devs · median $1.7k · 59 announced
  8. + HackingFair15 devs · median $1.6k · 17 announced
  9. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $1.2k · 15 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair24 devs · median $1.2k · 22 announced
  11. + DemonsFair101 devs · median $1.2k · 125 announced
  12. + Naval CombatFair14 devs · median $1.1k · 16 announced

All 185 pairs on the Bullet Hell page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Trials Survivors 2026 · EA · $142k Girl Frame 2025 · $31k Beach Defense: Zombie Invasion 2026 · $24k Book Shooter 2025 · $22k KUNKUN League 2024 · $11k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Trials Survivors · EA $9.99 475 85% 14k $142k (exactly $142,358) Angry wisp
Girl Frame $14.99 69 68% 2.1k $31k (exactly $31,029) Meow Run, Cat Shine
Beach Defense: Zombie Invasion $3.99 197 81% 5.9k $24k (exactly $23,581) Only Fun Games
Book Shooter $6.99 107 86% 3.2k $22k (exactly $22,438) SOS GameLab.
KUNKUN League $2.99 123 98% 3.7k $11k (exactly $11,033) Seal
鸭鸭大冒险 (Duck Duck Adventure) $8.99 29 93% 870 $7.8k (exactly $7,821) 清友工作室
Cult of Shadows $14.99 11 72% 330 $4.9k (exactly $4,947) Squirrel Tail Games
Autogun Heroes: Supercharged $12.49 13 46% 390 $4.9k (exactly $4,871) Nitro Games
Spaceship Simulator older $6.99 23 78% 690 $4.8k (exactly $4,823) chenjd
Chronos Trap in Time $12.99 11 100% 330 $4.3k (exactly $4,287) SCS Ogonvard AB
Curse Rounds $3.99 28 92% 840 $3.4k (exactly $3,352) TENTACLES INTERACTIVE

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.