Do I ship it?

GamesBullet HellBullet Hell + Supernatural

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural Bullet Hell?

Bullet Hell + Supernatural

Of 29 developers who shipped a Supernatural Bullet Hell in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 19 developers shipped in the last year and 38 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 530% on the market, 38 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bullet Hell + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $742 → $11k → $60 → $3.1k → $299 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bullet Hell + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,144)
Top 5% $296k (exactly $296,352)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 70
Announced 38
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 530% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Bullet Hell; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D, Isometric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 2,050 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $150, 1 in 4 over $3.1k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bullet Hell with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SuperheroStrong odds11 devs · median $3.4k · 7 announced
  2. + FaithFair26 devs · median $17k · 29 announced
  3. + VampiresFair43 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair24 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  5. + Strategy RPGFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  6. + PiratesFair14 devs · median $2.0k · 20 announced
  7. + CatsFair44 devs · median $1.7k · 59 announced
  8. + HackingFair15 devs · median $1.6k · 17 announced
  9. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $1.2k · 15 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair24 devs · median $1.2k · 22 announced
  11. + DemonsFair101 devs · median $1.2k · 125 announced
  12. + Naval CombatFair14 devs · median $1.1k · 16 announced

All 185 pairs on the Bullet Hell page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Necrosmith older $2.99 4,885 85% 147k $438k (exactly $438,185) Alawar
Night Swarm $9.99 1,142 78% 34k $342k (exactly $342,257) Fubu Games
RIFTSTORM · EA $14.99 659 70% 20k $296k (exactly $296,352) Confiction Labs, Agate
Touhou Mechanical Scrollery | 幻想討幻経 older $19.99 243 53% 7.3k $146k (exactly $145,727) 巫女さん作法
An Ankou · EA older $4.99 604 67% 18k $90k (exactly $90,419) Alkemi
Impaler Gold older $4.99 466 92% 14k $70k (exactly $69,760) Apptivus
Wand Wars older $11.99 183 96% 5.5k $66k (exactly $65,825) Moonradish Inc.
Kill The Music $9.99 106 96% 3.2k $32k (exactly $31,768) Nikko Nikko
Nullpoint Protocol $14.99 62 61% 1.9k $28k (exactly $27,881) Everbloom Games
ARRIVAL: ZERO EARTH older $5.99 154 80% 4.6k $28k (exactly $27,674) jounitus
BAROQUE SHOOTING: REVERSED $14.99 14 92% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Sting
Brave Rounds $14.99 12 100% 360 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) PlayShift Games
Vesperia Bononia $9.99 15 100% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Power Up Team
Lord O' Pirates $4.99 21 85% 630 $3.1k (exactly $3,144) One Flow Man
Demon Street $9.99 6 66% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Manycats Games
Spooky Survivors $2.99 13 92% 390 $1.2k (exactly $1,166) Aligned Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.