Do I ship it?

GamesBullet HellBullet Hell + Steampunk

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Steampunk Bullet Hell?

Bullet Hell + Steampunk

Only 16 developers shipped a Steampunk Bullet Hell in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Airships: Lost Flotilla, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $78k, ×125 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 30 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 30 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bullet Hell + Steampunk
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $14k → $9.0k → $269 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bullet Hell + Steampunk: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,156)
Top 25% $9.1k (exactly $9,109)
Top 5% $78k (exactly $78,213)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 44
Announced 30
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Steampunk
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Bullet Hell
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 668 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $9.1k, 1 in 20 over $78k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 9 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bullet Hell with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SuperheroStrong odds11 devs · median $3.4k · 7 announced
  2. + FaithFair26 devs · median $17k · 29 announced
  3. + VampiresFair43 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair24 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  5. + Strategy RPGFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  6. + PiratesFair14 devs · median $2.0k · 20 announced
  7. + CatsFair44 devs · median $1.7k · 59 announced
  8. + HackingFair15 devs · median $1.6k · 17 announced
  9. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $1.2k · 15 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair24 devs · median $1.2k · 22 announced
  11. + DemonsFair101 devs · median $1.2k · 125 announced
  12. + Naval CombatFair14 devs · median $1.1k · 16 announced

All 185 pairs on the Bullet Hell page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TEVI older $29.99 3,580 88% 107k $3.2M (exactly $3,220,926) CreSpirit, GemaYue, Ein Lee
Marfusha:Sentinel Girls older $7.99 3,116 93% 93k $747k (exactly $746,905) hinyari9
Swarm Grinder older $7.99 1,163 76% 35k $279k (exactly $278,771) Last Bite Games
Jamestown older $9.99 652 94% 20k $195k (exactly $195,404) Final Form Games
Sine Mora EX older $9.99 463 66% 14k $139k (exactly $138,761) Digital Reality, Grasshopper Manufactur… (Digital Reality, Grasshopper Manufacture, Gyroscope Games)
Airships: Lost Flotilla $8.99 290 92% 8.7k $78k (exactly $78,213) David Stark
Slyders $9.99 162 85% 4.9k $49k (exactly $48,551) Kato Games
DESTRUCTURE: Among Debris older $9.99 158 90% 4.7k $47k (exactly $47,353) Team Instant Defeat
Naval Warfare older $6.99 189 58% 5.7k $40k (exactly $39,633) Game Distillery s.r.o.
Driveloop: Survivors · EA $9.99 96 76% 2.9k $29k (exactly $28,771) Stunbyte
Hell Survivors · EA $7.99 38 55% 1.1k $9.1k (exactly $9,109) Aerilon
Luminaria: Dark Echoes $9.99 30 86% 900 $9.0k (exactly $8,991) Enthariel Games
Vehicle No. 4 $6.99 23 86% 690 $4.8k (exactly $4,823) indiejoh
Cloudbreaker $12.99 12 91% 360 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) Ballast Games
Rogue Runner $5.99 12 91% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) 42nd Machine
Ventilate $10.99 2 100% 60 $659 (exactly $659) Inkfox Studios
The Legend of Cyber Cowboy $4.99 3 33% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Eastasiasoft Limited

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.