Do I ship it?

GamesBullet HellBullet Hell + Spaceships

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Spaceship Bullet Hell?

Bullet Hell + Spaceships

Of 22 developers who shipped a Spaceship Bullet Hell in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 14 developers shipped in the last year and 17 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 17 announced, ×1.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bullet Hell + Spaceships
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $300 → $299 → $6.7k → $239 → $299 → $11k → $0 (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bullet Hell + Spaceships: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $89 (exactly $89)
Median $239 (exactly $239)
Top 25% $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 5% $13k (exactly $12,887)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 50
Announced 17
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Spaceships
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Bullet Hell; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D, Retro
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 184 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $89, median $240, 1 in 4 over $1.4k, 1 in 20 over $12k.

3 in 10 developers made under $89. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bullet Hell with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SuperheroStrong odds11 devs · median $3.4k · 7 announced
  2. + FaithFair26 devs · median $17k · 29 announced
  3. + VampiresFair43 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair24 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  5. + Strategy RPGFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  6. + PiratesFair14 devs · median $2.0k · 20 announced
  7. + CatsFair44 devs · median $1.7k · 59 announced
  8. + HackingFair15 devs · median $1.6k · 17 announced
  9. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $1.2k · 15 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair24 devs · median $1.2k · 22 announced
  11. + DemonsFair101 devs · median $1.2k · 125 announced
  12. + Naval CombatFair14 devs · median $1.1k · 16 announced

All 185 pairs on the Bullet Hell page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dimensions: Dreadnought Architect · EA older $15.99 184 55% 5.5k $88k (exactly $88,265) Craft Theory
Astral Gunners older $19.99 36 100% 1.1k $22k (exactly $21,589) Sati Bros
XIIZEAL older $11.99 59 88% 1.8k $21k (exactly $21,222) TRIANGLE SERVICE
eXoSpace Combat Engineer · EA $14.99 44 81% 1.3k $20k (exactly $19,787) Fantastimaker
Emerald Blue $9.99 43 100% 1.3k $13k (exactly $12,887) Emerald Blue Team
Terra Flame older $14.99 27 96% 810 $12k (exactly $12,142) TERARIN GAMES
SUPERVERSE $9.99 37 70% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,089) Superverse Industries
ZAKESTA-Z older $4.99 45 100% 1.4k $6.7k (exactly $6,736) zakichi
Hyper Space older $4.99 36 100% 1.1k $5.4k (exactly $5,389) Fennec Game Studio
Spaceship Simulator older $6.99 23 78% 690 $4.8k (exactly $4,823) chenjd
Seven Suns of Orion $4.99 22 100% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) FerroFerrous
VectaGuard $12.99 6 100% 180 $2.3k (exactly $2,338) RetroNinja
Timeloop Titans $9.99 5 100% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) LapaGames
Lonely tiny spaceship $3.99 12 83% 360 $1.4k (exactly $1,436) Lonely bro
Fire Everything! $4.99 4 100% 120 $599 (exactly $599) MindWroughtGames
Unknown Hero $4.99 2 50% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Svero Forge
LasTar $0.99 9 100% 270 $267 (exactly $267) Cidev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.