Do I ship it?

Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Bullet Hell

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bullet Hell Sandbox?

Sandbox + Bullet Hell

Of 43 developers who shipped a Bullet Hell Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 61 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 61 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper, while revenue is up 20% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 61 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Bullet Hell
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 43
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $958 → $3.7k → $179 → $959 → $267 (still earning) → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Bullet Hell: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 43
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $5.7k (exactly $5,694)
Top 5% $27k (exactly $27,343)
Developers, 2 yr 43
Released games 93
Announced 61
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Bullet Hell; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 582 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $360, 1 in 4 over $5.6k, 1 in 20 over $27k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. All of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 61 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Reassembly 2015 · $1.6M Disassembly 3D 2017 · $278k Maniac 2024 · $263k Disassembly VR 2019 · $141k Star Saviors 2016 · $92k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Reassembly older $14.99 3,611 94% 108k $1.6M (exactly $1,623,867) Anisoptera Games
Disassembly 3D older $29.99 309 81% 9.3k $278k (exactly $278,007) Khor Chin Heong
Maniac older $4.99 1,754 90% 53k $263k (exactly $262,574) Transhuman Design
Disassembly VR older $29.99 157 59% 4.7k $141k (exactly $141,253) Khor Chin Heong
Star Saviors older $1.99 1,535 81% 46k $92k (exactly $91,640) Sharpened Edge Studios
Dimensions: Dreadnought Architect · EA older $15.99 184 55% 5.5k $88k (exactly $88,265) Craft Theory
NEO AQUARIUM - The King of Crustaceans - older $8.99 252 80% 7.6k $68k (exactly $67,964) Calappa Games
Silent Sector older $14.99 108 82% 3.2k $49k (exactly $48,568) Rake in Grass
ArmorSim · EA $18.99 77 57% 2.3k $44k (exactly $43,867) Timerlan Galimov
Deliria $9.99 136 61% 4.1k $41k (exactly $40,759) Linesway
Absolute Insanity $15.99 57 94% 1.7k $27k (exactly $27,343) Chris Danelon
Beatdown City Survivors $9.99 80 98% 2.4k $24k (exactly $23,976) NuChallenger
eXoSpace Combat Engineer · EA $14.99 44 81% 1.3k $20k (exactly $19,787) Fantastimaker
Ballatory $7.99 82 78% 2.5k $20k (exactly $19,655) Mini Fun Games
Chaos on Wheels $9.99 34 67% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Acodeon Development
Demonslayer AKA Me $7.99 34 73% 1.0k $8.2k (exactly $8,150) 晶尘工作室
MagicCar of Delicious $9.99 26 76% 780 $7.8k (exactly $7,792) YINGGUO GAME
ReTrime $15.99 12 100% 360 $5.8k (exactly $5,756) DoubleSystem

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.