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Should I ship a PvP Bullet Hell?
PvP + Bullet Hell
Of 64 developers who shipped a PvP Bullet Hell in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 120 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $510, ×0.3 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270. 120 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper, while revenue is down 20% on the market.
| Bottom 30% | $267 (exactly $267) |
|---|---|
| Median | $505 (exactly $505) |
| Top 25% | $4.4k (exactly $4,404) |
| Top 5% | $15k (exactly $15,095) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 64 |
| Released games | 242 |
| Announced | 120 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- PvP
- effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
- Bullet Hell
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP, Bullet Hell; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Arcade
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Third Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 796 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $270. 9 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 120 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
Warhammer 40,000: Shootas, Blood & Teef 2022 · $1.6M 
Blazing Beaks 2019 · $919k 
Beat Hazard 2 2019 · $795k 
Disney•Pixar Cars 2: The Video Game 2014 · $582k 
Beat Hazard 3 2024 · $351k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Warhammer 40,000: Shootas, Blood & Teef | older | $19.99 | 2,586 87% | 78k | $1.6M (exactly $1,550,824) | Rogueside |
| | Blazing Beaks | older | $14.99 | 2,043 84% | 61k | $919k (exactly $918,737) | Applava |
| | Beat Hazard 2 | older | $18.99 | 1,396 89% | 42k | $795k (exactly $795,301) | Cold Beam Games |
| | Disney•Pixar Cars 2: The Video Game | older | $19.99 | 970 79% | 29k | $582k (exactly $581,709) | Avalanche Software |
| | Beat Hazard 3 | older | $19.99 | 586 84% | 18k | $351k (exactly $351,424) | Cold Beam Games |
 | Maiden and Spell | older | $12.99 | 822 97% | 25k | $320k (exactly $320,333) | mino_dev |
 | Warhammer 40,000: Dakka Squadron - Flyboyz Edition | older | $19.99 | 416 78% | 12k | $249k (exactly $249,475) | Phosphor Game Studios |
 | Nienix: Cosmic Warfare | older | $19.99 | 336 87% | 10k | $201k (exactly $201,499) | HolmCom |
 | Sine Mora EX | older | $9.99 | 463 66% | 14k | $139k (exactly $138,761) | Digital Reality, Grasshopper Manufactur… (Digital Reality, Grasshopper Manufacture, Gyroscope Games) |
 | Duelists of Eden | older | $4.99 | 856 95% | 26k | $128k (exactly $128,143) | Thomas Moon Kang |
 | Last Man Sitting | $9.99 | 357 77% | 11k | $107k (exactly $106,993) | DoubleMoose Games | |
 | SHRIMP GAME: OVERKRILL | $11.99 | 93 89% | 2.8k | $33k (exactly $33,452) | GasGod Games, GLUE MAN | |
 | Gnaughty Gnomes | $7.99 | 71 100% | 2.1k | $17k (exactly $17,019) | SandCastles Studio | |
 | Darkchaser: Battletide | $5.99 | 84 73% | 2.5k | $15k (exactly $15,095) | DB Studio | |
 | Touhou Brawl | $11.99 | 39 51% | 1.2k | $14k (exactly $14,028) | FIVE DUCK GAMES | |
 | Fast Royal | $14.99 | 30 100% | 900 | $13k (exactly $13,491) | Edos Interactive | |
 | Touhou Volleyball Danmaku | $9.99 | 40 100% | 1.2k | $12k (exactly $11,988) | Compact TH | |
 | Chaos on Wheels | $9.99 | 34 67% | 1.0k | $10k (exactly $10,190) | Acodeon Development | |
 | Luminaria: Dark Echoes | $9.99 | 30 86% | 900 | $9.0k (exactly $8,991) | Enthariel Games | |
 | Bullet: Surge | $15.99 | 18 94% | 540 | $8.6k (exactly $8,635) | Cerbere Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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