Do I ship it?

GamesBullet HellBullet Hell + Multiple Endings

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Multiple Endings Bullet Hell?

Bullet Hell + Multiple Endings

Of 60 developers who shipped a Multiple Endings Bullet Hell in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 136 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $49k, ×103 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 136 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 136 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bullet Hell + Multiple Endings
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 60
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $807 → $898 → $1.6k → $3.0k → $7.5k → $1.2k → $270 (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bullet Hell + Multiple Endings: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 60
Bottom 30% $270 (exactly $270)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $5.7k (exactly $5,694)
Top 5% $49k (exactly $49,017)
Developers, 2 yr 60
Released games 183
Announced 136
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Multiple Endings
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Bullet Hell, Multiple Endings; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Adventure
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 930 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $5.6k, 1 in 20 over $49k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 9 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 136 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bullet Hell with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SuperheroStrong odds11 devs · median $3.4k · 7 announced
  2. + FaithFair26 devs · median $17k · 29 announced
  3. + VampiresFair43 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair24 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  5. + Strategy RPGFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  6. + PiratesFair14 devs · median $2.0k · 20 announced
  7. + CatsFair44 devs · median $1.7k · 59 announced
  8. + HackingFair15 devs · median $1.6k · 17 announced
  9. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $1.2k · 15 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair24 devs · median $1.2k · 22 announced
  11. + DemonsFair101 devs · median $1.2k · 125 announced
  12. + Naval CombatFair14 devs · median $1.1k · 16 announced

All 185 pairs on the Bullet Hell page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Undertale older $9.99 307,601 96% 9.2M $92M (exactly $92,188,020) tobyfox
Everhood older $9.99 11,436 95% 343k $3.4M (exactly $3,427,369) Chris Nordgren, Jordi Roca
Noctuary older $29.99 2,371 94% 71k $2.1M (exactly $2,133,189) Gratesca
Hunt Down The Freeman older $9.99 3,785 54% 114k $1.1M (exactly $1,134,364) Royal Rudius Entertainment
Angel at Dusk older $14.99 1,676 98% 50k $754k (exactly $753,697) Akiragoya
Snezhinka:Sentinel Girls2 older $7.99 2,433 96% 73k $583k (exactly $583,190) hinyari9
The Knight Witch older $19.99 643 72% 19k $386k (exactly $385,607) Super Mega Team
Kelipot older $13.99 700 85% 21k $294k (exactly $293,790) Unlimited Fly Games
Scathe older $24.99 198 56% 5.9k $148k (exactly $148,441) Damage State
Duelists of Eden older $4.99 856 95% 26k $128k (exactly $128,143) Thomas Moon Kang
Pinball Storm: Lokanta $5.99 434 70% 13k $78k (exactly $77,990) Aastral Dynamics
PROJECT TACHYON $17.99 117 83% 3.5k $63k (exactly $63,145) STUDIO N9
Slimekeep $14.99 109 87% 3.3k $49k (exactly $49,017) BenBonk
Dreamed Away $18.99 59 91% 1.8k $34k (exactly $33,612) WAKE UP GAMES
Game of Rebirth $12.99 81 69% 2.4k $32k (exactly $31,566) ZodiacStudio
COLD VR $19.99 28 60% 840 $17k (exactly $16,792) ALLWARE LLC
THE GIRL FROM GUNMA Kai  群馬県から来た少女・改 $9.99 41 97% 1.2k $12k (exactly $12,288) 株式会社ヒューガ HUGA Inc.
TriggerHeart EXELICA ENHANCED $39.99 10 80% 300 $12k (exactly $11,997) Cosmo Machia inc.
WHISPERS OF GODDESS $11.49 30 50% 900 $10k (exactly $10,341) Ion studio
Kamikaze Empire $12.99 21 100% 630 $8.2k (exactly $8,184) Kamikaze Kobo

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.