Do I ship it?

GamesBullet HellBullet Hell + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Bullet Hell?

Bullet Hell + Medieval

Of 85 developers who shipped a Medieval Bullet Hell in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 129 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×3.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×539 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 129 games are announced against 50 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 129 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bullet Hell + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 85
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $896 → $359 → $1.6k → $3.4k → $839 → $1.7k (still earning) → $6.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bullet Hell + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 85
Bottom 30% $598 (exactly $598)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,676)
Top 25% $9.0k (exactly $8,970)
Top 5% $256k (exactly $256,106)
Developers, 2 yr 85
Released games 199
Announced 129
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Bullet Hell; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 11,292 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $8.9k, 1 in 20 over $250k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 39 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 129 games are announced against 50 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bullet Hell with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SuperheroStrong odds11 devs · median $3.4k · 7 announced
  2. + FaithFair26 devs · median $17k · 29 announced
  3. + VampiresFair43 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair24 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  5. + Strategy RPGFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  6. + PiratesFair14 devs · median $2.0k · 20 announced
  7. + CatsFair44 devs · median $1.7k · 59 announced
  8. + HackingFair15 devs · median $1.6k · 17 announced
  9. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $1.2k · 15 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair24 devs · median $1.2k · 22 announced
  11. + DemonsFair101 devs · median $1.2k · 125 announced
  12. + Naval CombatFair14 devs · median $1.1k · 16 announced

All 185 pairs on the Bullet Hell page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Pass the Fear $18.99 2,985 79% 90k $1.7M (exactly $1,700,554) PlayMud Studio
Wanderburg · EA $14.99 2,103 78% 63k $946k (exactly $945,719) Randwerk
Conquest Dark · EA $9.99 2,530 89% 76k $758k (exactly $758,241) Eldritch Sword Games
Asgard's Fall — Viking Survivors $9.99 1,301 79% 39k $390k (exactly $389,910) Soulpotion
Scarlet Tower older $6.99 1,831 81% 55k $384k (exactly $383,961) Pyxeralia LLC
Crafty Survivors $11.99 712 83% 21k $256k (exactly $256,106) Flannel Bear Games
DunHero $8.99 530 89% 16k $143k (exactly $142,941) Dev Kacper
Blood Dungeon $9.99 453 89% 14k $136k (exactly $135,764) Messhof
Hordes of Hunger $14.99 230 72% 6.9k $103k (exactly $103,431) Hyperstrange
东方栖霞园 ~ Blue devil in the Belvedere. older $9.99 297 92% 8.9k $89k (exactly $89,011) 东方祈华梦制作组
The Gate Must Stand $9.99 236 78% 7.1k $71k (exactly $70,729) Senmu Studio
Yuri Sword Saga $10.99 212 97% 6.4k $70k (exactly $69,896) Pico Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.