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Should I ship an Incremental Bullet Hell?
Bullet Hell + Incremental
Of 89 developers who shipped an Incremental Bullet Hell in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 96 more are announced.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×2.2 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $59k, ×126 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 96 games are announced against 69 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $298 (exactly $298) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.0k (exactly $1,048) |
| Top 25% | $6.0k (exactly $5,988) |
| Top 5% | $60k (exactly $59,640) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 89 |
| Released games | 141 |
| Announced | 96 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 245% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Bullet Hell
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Incremental
- effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Bullet Hell, Incremental; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Action, Arcade
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $6.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Pixel Graphics
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $6.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 6,805 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 96 games are announced against 69 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
Bullet Hell with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + SuperheroStrong odds
- + FaithFair
- + VampiresFair
- + Creature CollectorFair
- + Strategy RPGFair
- + PiratesFair
- + CatsFair
- + HackingFair
- + Time ManagementFair
- + Card BattlerFair
- + DemonsFair
- + Naval CombatFair
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Astro Prospector | $4.99 | 3,223 91% | 97k | $482k (exactly $482,483) | Incrementalist | |
| | Void Miner – Incremental Asteroids Roguelite | $5.99 | 698 83% | 21k | $125k (exactly $125,431) | RyanJakob | |
| | Minutescape | $5.99 | 546 74% | 16k | $98k (exactly $98,116) | Molter | |
| | Ancient Cultivatrix | $8.99 | 240 67% | 7.2k | $65k (exactly $64,728) | 五条虾仁(5 shrimps) | |
| | 最后的仙门 The last Practice Sect | older | $3.99 | 504 53% | 15k | $60k (exactly $60,329) | 栖鸾工作室 |
| | Kin and Conquest | $9.99 | 199 73% | 6.0k | $60k (exactly $59,640) | The Fox Knocks | |
| | Nebulock | $2.99 | 583 86% | 17k | $52k (exactly $52,295) | LostVolBytes | |
| | DEFRAG | $2.99 | 534 93% | 16k | $48k (exactly $47,900) | BlueDot Studio | |
| | Antivirus PROTOCOL | $4.99 | 313 87% | 9.4k | $47k (exactly $46,856) | FIREHIVE Studio | |
| | Identifile: Desktop Dungeon | · EA | $9.99 | 148 91% | 4.4k | $44k (exactly $44,356) | Gearbyte Games |
| | Duncrush | $3.99 | 321 82% | 9.6k | $38k (exactly $38,424) | Golden Pick Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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