Do I ship it?

GamesBullet HellBullet Hell + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Incremental Bullet Hell?

Bullet Hell + Incremental

Of 89 developers who shipped an Incremental Bullet Hell in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 96 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×2.2 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $59k, ×126 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 96 games are announced against 69 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 96 announced, ×1.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bullet Hell + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 89
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $3.0k → $2.1k → $3.3k → $599 (still earning) → $987 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bullet Hell + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 89
Bottom 30% $298 (exactly $298)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $6.0k (exactly $5,988)
Top 5% $60k (exactly $59,640)
Developers, 2 yr 89
Released games 141
Announced 96
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 245% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Bullet Hell, Incremental; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Action, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $6.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $6.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 6,805 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $5.9k, 1 in 20 over $59k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 96 games are announced against 69 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bullet Hell with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SuperheroStrong odds11 devs · median $3.4k · 7 announced
  2. + FaithFair26 devs · median $17k · 29 announced
  3. + VampiresFair43 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair24 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  5. + Strategy RPGFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  6. + PiratesFair14 devs · median $2.0k · 20 announced
  7. + CatsFair44 devs · median $1.7k · 59 announced
  8. + HackingFair15 devs · median $1.6k · 17 announced
  9. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $1.2k · 15 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair24 devs · median $1.2k · 22 announced
  11. + DemonsFair101 devs · median $1.2k · 125 announced
  12. + Naval CombatFair14 devs · median $1.1k · 16 announced

All 185 pairs on the Bullet Hell page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Astro Prospector $4.99 3,223 91% 97k $482k (exactly $482,483) Incrementalist
Void Miner – Incremental Asteroids Roguelite $5.99 698 83% 21k $125k (exactly $125,431) RyanJakob
Minutescape $5.99 546 74% 16k $98k (exactly $98,116) Molter
Ancient Cultivatrix $8.99 240 67% 7.2k $65k (exactly $64,728) 五条虾仁(5 shrimps)
最后的仙门 The last Practice Sect older $3.99 504 53% 15k $60k (exactly $60,329) 栖鸾工作室
Kin and Conquest $9.99 199 73% 6.0k $60k (exactly $59,640) The Fox Knocks
Nebulock $2.99 583 86% 17k $52k (exactly $52,295) LostVolBytes
DEFRAG $2.99 534 93% 16k $48k (exactly $47,900) BlueDot Studio
Antivirus PROTOCOL $4.99 313 87% 9.4k $47k (exactly $46,856) FIREHIVE Studio
Identifile: Desktop Dungeon · EA $9.99 148 91% 4.4k $44k (exactly $44,356) Gearbyte Games
Duncrush $3.99 321 82% 9.6k $38k (exactly $38,424) Golden Pick Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.