Do I ship it?

Games › Bullet Hell › Bullet Hell + Gothic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gothic Bullet Hell?

Bullet Hell + Gothic

Of 29 developers who shipped a Gothic Bullet Hell in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×4.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $810k, ×1708 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 39 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 39 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bullet Hell + Gothic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $112k → $11k → $9.1k → $269 → $7.6k → $538 (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bullet Hell + Gothic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Top 25% $8.8k (exactly $8,832)
Top 5% $811k (exactly $811,259)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 59
Announced 39
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Gothic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Bullet Hell; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 34,183 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $8.8k, 1 in 20 over $810k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bullet Hell with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SuperheroStrong odds11 devs · median $3.4k · 7 announced
  2. + FaithFair26 devs · median $17k · 29 announced
  3. + VampiresFair43 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair24 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  5. + Strategy RPGFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  6. + PiratesFair14 devs · median $2.0k · 20 announced
  7. + CatsFair44 devs · median $1.7k · 59 announced
  8. + HackingFair15 devs · median $1.6k · 17 announced
  9. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $1.2k · 15 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair24 devs · median $1.2k · 22 announced
  11. + DemonsFair101 devs · median $1.2k · 125 announced
  12. + Naval CombatFair14 devs · median $1.1k · 16 announced

All 185 pairs on the Bullet Hell page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Halls of Torment 2024 · $6.1M KILL KNIGHT 2024 · $811k DEMON'S TILT 2019 · $577k QUICKERFLAK 2022 · $422k Scarlet Tower 2024 · $384k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Halls of Torment $6.66 30,752 95% 923k $6.1M (exactly $6,144,250) Chasing Carrots
KILL KNIGHT $14.99 1,804 93% 54k $811k (exactly $811,259) PlaySide
DEMON'S TILT older $19.99 962 94% 29k $577k (exactly $576,911) WIZNWAR, FLARB LLC
QUICKERFLAK older $4.99 2,819 87% 85k $422k (exactly $422,004) Walter Machado
Scarlet Tower older $6.99 1,831 81% 55k $384k (exactly $383,961) Pyxeralia LLC
Deathsmiles older $19.99 572 95% 17k $343k (exactly $343,028) CAVE Interactive CO.,LTD.
Night Swarm $9.99 1,142 78% 34k $342k (exactly $342,257) Fubu Games
Valfaris: Mecha Therion older $19.99 302 94% 9.1k $181k (exactly $181,109) Steel Mantis
Deathsmiles I・II older $39.90 97 95% 2.9k $116k (exactly $116,109) CITY CONNECTION, TAKE×0FF
Renfield: Bring Your Own Blood older $4.99 748 77% 22k $112k (exactly $111,976) Mega Cat Studios
Flock of the Seraphim $9.99 162 85% 4.9k $49k (exactly $48,551) GuuchanDev
Black Dragon Mage · EA $5.99 140 70% 4.2k $25k (exactly $25,158) datablob
Ascendant $9.99 47 70% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) Imagisphere
Hell Survivors · EA $7.99 38 55% 1.1k $9.1k (exactly $9,109) Aerilon
NightMare King $4.99 59 83% 1.8k $8.8k (exactly $8,832) Starmoon Cat
MEAT 2 · EA $14.99 17 88% 510 $7.6k (exactly $7,645) Trippin Bears
NeverAwake FLASHBACK $9.99 22 86% 660 $6.6k (exactly $6,593) Neotro Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.