Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Bullet Hell

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Bullet Hell?

Exploration + Bullet Hell

Of 131 developers who shipped an Exploration Bullet Hell in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 236 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $73k, ×156 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 236 games are announced against 68 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 236 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Bullet Hell
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 131
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $2.9k → $7.5k → $2.7k → $2.9k → $360 → $269 (still earning) → $480 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Bullet Hell: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 131
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $7.5k (exactly $7,492)
Top 5% $74k (exactly $73,898)
Developers, 2 yr 131
Released games 321
Announced 236
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration, Bullet Hell; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action-Adventure
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 5,368 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $600, 1 in 4 over $7.4k, 1 in 20 over $73k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 74 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 236 games are announced against 68 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Touhou Luna Nights older $17.99 13,776 97% 413k $7.4M (exactly $7,434,907) Team Ladybug, WSS playground
Rabi-Ribi older $17.99 10,768 95% 323k $5.8M (exactly $5,811,490) CreSpirit, GemaYue
Dungeon Munchies older $19.99 6,596 97% 198k $4.0M (exactly $3,955,621) maJAJa
Minishoot' Adventures older $14.99 7,818 97% 235k $3.5M (exactly $3,515,755) SoulGame Studio
TEVI older $29.99 3,580 88% 107k $3.2M (exactly $3,220,926) CreSpirit, GemaYue, Ein Lee
Nordic Ashes: Survivors of Ragnarok older $9.99 6,180 88% 185k $1.9M (exactly $1,852,146) Noxfall Studios
Gensokyo Night Festival · EA older $12.99 4,497 69% 135k $1.8M (exactly $1,752,481) WSS playground, tea_basira
Reassembly older $14.99 3,611 94% 108k $1.6M (exactly $1,623,867) Anisoptera Games
Luna Abyss $29.99 923 86% 28k $830k (exactly $830,423) Kwalee Labs
Picayune Dreams older $4.99 4,164 98% 125k $623k (exactly $623,351) Stepford, Andyland, milkypossum
NIMRODS · EA $9.99 1,783 85% 53k $534k (exactly $534,365) Fiveamp
Galactic Glitch $12.99 920 89% 28k $359k (exactly $358,524) Crunchy Leaf Games
Kvark $19.99 461 86% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Latest Past, Perun Creative
Seer's Gambit $14.99 490 76% 15k $220k (exactly $220,353) Unleash The Giraffe
Cyberwar: Neon City · EA $17.99 171 90% 5.1k $92k (exactly $92,289) Cyber Monkey Studios
MYRIAD DEATH $8.99 274 85% 8.2k $74k (exactly $73,898) IGNITION M, Clover Lab.,inc.
Outrider Mako $17.99 121 65% 3.6k $65k (exactly $65,304) Asamado Games
Identifile: Desktop Dungeon · EA $9.99 148 91% 4.4k $44k (exactly $44,356) Gearbyte Games
ArmorSim · EA $18.99 77 57% 2.3k $44k (exactly $43,867) Timerlan Galimov

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.