Do I ship it?

GamesBullet HellBullet Hell + Choose Your Own Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure Bullet Hell?

Bullet Hell + Choose Your Own Adventure

Only 12 developers shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure Bullet Hell in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Demon Hand, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×3.2 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×237 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 19 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 19 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bullet Hell + Choose Your Own Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $898 → $5.7k → $1.6k → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bullet Hell + Choose Your Own Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $598 (exactly $598)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,525)
Top 25% $8.2k (exactly $8,150)
Top 5% $112k (exactly $112,388)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 43
Announced 19
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Bullet Hell, Choose Your Own Adventure
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 611 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $8.1k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bullet Hell with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SuperheroStrong odds11 devs · median $3.4k · 7 announced
  2. + FaithFair26 devs · median $17k · 29 announced
  3. + VampiresFair43 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair24 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  5. + Strategy RPGFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  6. + PiratesFair14 devs · median $2.0k · 20 announced
  7. + CatsFair44 devs · median $1.7k · 59 announced
  8. + HackingFair15 devs · median $1.6k · 17 announced
  9. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $1.2k · 15 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair24 devs · median $1.2k · 22 announced
  11. + DemonsFair101 devs · median $1.2k · 125 announced
  12. + Naval CombatFair14 devs · median $1.1k · 16 announced

All 185 pairs on the Bullet Hell page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Demon Hand $9.99 375 84% 11k $112k (exactly $112,388) Tora Creatives
Touhou Gensokyo Odyssey older $6.99 357 94% 11k $75k (exactly $74,863) Kronington
Hero of Fate older $2.99 495 78% 15k $44k (exactly $44,402) Planescape Game Studio
Deliria $9.99 136 61% 4.1k $41k (exactly $40,759) Linesway
Baby Blues Nightmares - Toddler Horror Game older $12.99 93 91% 2.8k $36k (exactly $36,242) Steelkrill Studio
Super Retro Fighter · EA older $11.99 57 73% 1.7k $21k (exactly $20,503) Syndrome interactive, Cat God Studio
Demonslayer AKA Me $7.99 34 73% 1.0k $8.2k (exactly $8,150) 晶尘工作室
Brick Odyssey older $11.99 18 94% 540 $6.5k (exactly $6,475) MacMorgan
Spellbound Survivors older $4.99 38 89% 1.1k $5.7k (exactly $5,689) ToastedSquadStudios
Aevalore $4.99 16 81% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) Aevalore
Galactic Plague 2000 $4.99 11 100% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) Yacoobs C.M, TR Old School Gamer
Big Theft Valkeala $2.99 17 76% 510 $1.5k (exactly $1,525) Tero Lunkka, Valkeala Software, Kendall… (Tero Lunkka, Valkeala Software, Kendall Studios)
さーきゅらーディフェンス!!~とある辺境惑星開拓事務所、30日の記録~ $8.99 4 75% 120 $1.1k (exactly $1,079) Picola Inc.
Is this a Game yet? · EA $1.99 12 91% 360 $716 (exactly $716) Onizumi Kohari
The Little Moon $3.99 5 100% 150 $598 (exactly $598) TTeokLeaf, Wojtek
Strange Hunting Grounds · EA $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) GaniTani

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.