Do I ship it?

Games › Bullet Heaven › Bullet Heaven + Tower Defense

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bullet Heaven Tower Defense?

Bullet Heaven + Tower Defense

Of 29 developers who shipped a Bullet Heaven Tower Defense in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 69 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $12k, ×25 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×798 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 69 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 25.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 69 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bullet Heaven + Tower Defense
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $171k → $7.4k → $16k (still earning) → $1.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bullet Heaven + Tower Defense: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $1.7k (exactly $1,678)
Median $12k (exactly $11,953)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $32,667)
Top 5% $379k (exactly $379,155)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 38
Announced 69
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 525% more developers than the period before.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bullet Heaven
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Tower Defense
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Bullet Heaven, Tower Defense; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelite, Strategy
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 4,712 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.7k, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.7k. 69 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bullet Heaven with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Online Co-OpStrong odds27 devs · median $9.3k · 38 announced
  2. + Class-BasedFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 38 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  4. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds19 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  5. + Action RPGPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced
  6. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds21 devs · median $17k · 53 announced
  7. + LootPoor odds54 devs · median $14k · 100 announced
  8. + Twin Stick ShooterPoor odds51 devs · median $11k · 57 announced
  9. + ZombiesPoor odds22 devs · median $11k · 40 announced
  10. + RPGPoor odds120 devs · median $9.3k · 156 announced
  11. + Hack and SlashPoor odds70 devs · median $8.3k · 97 announced
  12. + Dark FantasyPoor odds68 devs · median $4.8k · 97 announced

All 48 pairs on the Bullet Heaven page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Heretic's Fork 2023 · $928k Necrosmith 2022 · $438k Achilles: Survivor 2025 · $392k Sineus Arena Survivors 2026 · $379k Necrosmith 2 2024 · $315k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Heretic's Fork older $9.99 3,097 85% 93k $928k (exactly $928,171) 9FingerGames
Necrosmith older $2.99 4,885 85% 147k $438k (exactly $438,185) Alawar
Achilles: Survivor $8.99 1,454 81% 44k $392k (exactly $392,144) Dark Point Games
Sineus Arena Survivors $10.99 1,150 77% 35k $379k (exactly $379,155) Sineus Games
Necrosmith 2 older $7.99 1,315 77% 39k $315k (exactly $315,206) Alawar
Mechs V Kaijus - Tower Defense older $12.99 511 83% 15k $199k (exactly $199,137) Doble Punch Games
Paper Planet older $14.99 381 89% 11k $171k (exactly $171,336) Doodlegames
Wireworks $6.99 614 89% 18k $129k (exactly $128,756) JJJ
Swarm Bunker: Lust Defense $9.99 386 88% 12k $116k (exactly $115,684) 001Studio-NSFW
Towerful Defense: A Rogue TD older $9.99 209 70% 6.3k $63k (exactly $62,637) Mini Fun Games
Mech Fortress $7.99 239 85% 7.2k $57k (exactly $57,288) Some Sugar Studio
All Aboard! The Train Defense Express $4.99 379 84% 11k $57k (exactly $56,736) Likadev
Incrempire $6.99 167 68% 5.0k $35k (exactly $35,020) FMGames, Regnum Noctis
Kritter: Defend Together $9.99 109 86% 3.3k $33k (exactly $32,667) LJF Games
Gem Miner TD $12.99 72 97% 2.2k $28k (exactly $28,058) iFeral Games
Refence $5.99 142 77% 4.3k $26k (exactly $25,517) Muurou Tech

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.