Do I ship it?

Games › Loot › Loot + Bullet Heaven

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Loot Bullet Heaven?

Loot + Bullet Heaven

Of 54 developers who shipped a Loot Bullet Heaven in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 100 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $14k, ×22 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2044 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 100 games are announced against 47 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 22.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 100 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Loot + Bullet Heaven
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 54
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $48k → $512k → $20k → $21k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Loot + Bullet Heaven: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 54
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Median $14k (exactly $14,028)
Top 25% $96k (exactly $96,462)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,283,894)
Developers, 2 yr 54
Released games 64
Announced 100
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 570% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Bullet Heaven
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Loot, Bullet Heaven; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Bullet Hell
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 119,611 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $14k, 1 in 4 over $96k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 3 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 100 games are announced against 47 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Loot with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds28 devs · median $19k · 22 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  3. + SteampunkStrong odds7 devs · median $2.2k · 10 announced
  4. + CapitalismFair36 devs · median $14k · 52 announced
  5. + Turn-Based StrategyFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  6. + JRPGFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  7. + EconomyFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  8. + IdlerFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  9. + CatsFair17 devs · median $3.4k · 24 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  11. + Creature CollectorFair51 devs · median $2.9k · 67 announced
  12. + CollectathonFair90 devs · median $1.9k · 95 announced

All 159 pairs on the Loot page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Megabonk 2025 · $30M Neon Abyss 2020 · $19M Death Must Die 2023 · EA · $4.4M Tower of Babel: Survivors of Chaos 2026 · $2.4M Deadly Days: Roadtrip 2025 · EA · $1.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Megabonk $9.99 100,202 94% 3.0M $30M (exactly $30,030,539) vedinad
Neon Abyss older $31.49 19,709 86% 591k $19M (exactly $18,619,092) Veewo Games
Death Must Die · EA older $6.99 20,937 90% 628k $4.4M (exactly $4,390,489) Realm Archive
Tower of Babel: Survivors of Chaos $12.99 6,281 68% 188k $2.4M (exactly $2,447,706) NANOO
Deadly Days: Roadtrip · EA $14.99 2,855 87% 86k $1.3M (exactly $1,283,894) Pixelsplit
R.I.P. - Reincarnation Insurance Program $14.99 2,727 76% 82k $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332) WarmCore Studio
I Am Legion: Stand Survivors $8.99 2,432 82% 73k $656k (exactly $655,910) JA Game Studio
Grind Survivors $12.99 1,332 69% 40k $519k (exactly $519,080) Pushka Studios
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC
Shadow Dungeon $9.99 1,387 78% 42k $416k (exactly $415,684) OO Cat
Sineus Arena Survivors $10.99 1,150 77% 35k $379k (exactly $379,155) Sineus Games
Soulbound: Online · EA $14.99 562 58% 17k $253k (exactly $252,731) SpiderWare

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.