Do I ship it?

Games › Bullet Heaven › Bullet Heaven + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Bullet Heaven?

Bullet Heaven + Post-apocalyptic

Of 21 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Bullet Heaven in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 53 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $17k, ×27 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $170k, ×281 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 53 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 27.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 53 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bullet Heaven + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $27k → $7.4k → $21k (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bullet Heaven + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $1.0k (exactly $1,015)
Median $17k (exactly $17,083)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $28,771)
Top 5% $176k (exactly $176,356)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 27
Announced 53
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bullet Heaven
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Bullet Heaven; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Bullet Hell
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 3,964 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $17k, 1 in 4 over $28k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 5 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 53 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bullet Heaven with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Online Co-OpStrong odds27 devs · median $9.3k · 38 announced
  2. + Class-BasedFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 38 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  4. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds19 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  5. + Action RPGPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced
  6. + LootPoor odds54 devs · median $14k · 100 announced
  7. + Tower DefensePoor odds29 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  8. + Twin Stick ShooterPoor odds51 devs · median $11k · 57 announced
  9. + ZombiesPoor odds22 devs · median $11k · 40 announced
  10. + RPGPoor odds120 devs · median $9.3k · 156 announced
  11. + Hack and SlashPoor odds70 devs · median $8.3k · 97 announced
  12. + Dark FantasyPoor odds68 devs · median $4.8k · 97 announced

All 48 pairs on the Bullet Heaven page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

FatalZone 2024 · $446k Dark Light: Survivor 2026 · EA · $176k Swarm Bunker: Lust Defense 2026 · $116k Demon Hunt 2025 · EA · $96k Choo Choo Survivor 2023 · $84k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
FatalZone $6.99 2,125 66% 64k $446k (exactly $445,612) Midhard Games
Dark Light: Survivor · EA $16.99 346 75% 10k $176k (exactly $176,356) Mirari&Co.
Swarm Bunker: Lust Defense $9.99 386 88% 12k $116k (exactly $115,684) 001Studio-NSFW
Demon Hunt · EA $6.99 460 77% 14k $96k (exactly $96,462) Massive Hug
Choo Choo Survivor older $4.99 563 85% 17k $84k (exactly $84,281) GTGD
Survivor Mercs $9.99 147 70% 4.4k $44k (exactly $44,056) Wolpertinger Games
REMEDIUM: Sentinels older $4.99 196 66% 5.9k $29k (exactly $29,341) Sobaka Studio
Driveloop: Survivors · EA $9.99 96 76% 2.9k $29k (exactly $28,771) Stunbyte
Gunbot Diplomacy $4.99 186 86% 5.6k $28k (exactly $27,844) Sleepy Sentry
Absolute Insanity $15.99 57 94% 1.7k $27k (exactly $27,343) Chris Danelon
Pest Apocalypse $9.99 75 94% 2.3k $22k (exactly $22,478) Kikimora Games
SCAD · EA $7.99 86 76% 2.6k $21k (exactly $20,614) NAISU

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.