Do I ship it?

GamesDungeon CrawlerDungeon Crawler + Bullet Heaven

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bullet Heaven Dungeon Crawler?

Dungeon Crawler + Bullet Heaven

Only 19 developers shipped a Bullet Heaven Dungeon Crawler in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Deadly Days: Roadtrip, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $32k, ×67 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $6.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2703 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 32 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 66.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 32 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dungeon Crawler + Bullet Heaven
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Dungeon Crawler + Bullet Heaven: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $6.3k (exactly $6,296)
Median $32k (exactly $31,625)
Top 25% $200k (exactly $200,299)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,283,894)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 25
Announced 32
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 435% more developers than the period before.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dungeon Crawler
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Bullet Heaven
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Dungeon Crawler, Bullet Heaven; all of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Bullet Hell
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 12,550 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $6.3k, median $32k, 1 in 4 over $200k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $6.3k. 32 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dungeon Crawler with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair35 devs · median $7.0k · 44 announced
  2. + GamblingFair16 devs · median $7.0k · 17 announced
  3. + DiceFair24 devs · median $5.1k · 32 announced
  4. + Artificial IntelligenceFair29 devs · median $2.3k · 38 announced
  5. + Local Co-OpFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 60 announced
  6. + ZombiesFair65 devs · median $1.0k · 74 announced
  7. + Word GameFair12 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  8. + ThrillerFair45 devs · median $716 · 46 announced
  9. + Walking SimulatorFair59 devs · median $479 · 62 announced
  10. + Score AttackFair29 devs · median $479 · 33 announced
  11. + MMORPGPoor odds10 devs · median $144k · 80 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds8 devs · median $55k · 30 announced

All 175 pairs on the Dungeon Crawler page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Neon Abyss older $31.49 19,709 86% 591k $19M (exactly $18,619,092) Veewo Games
Deadly Days: Roadtrip · EA $14.99 2,855 87% 86k $1.3M (exactly $1,283,894) Pixelsplit
Pathogenic $9.99 4,145 92% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,242,256) Aberrant Labs
I Am Legion: Stand Survivors $8.99 2,432 82% 73k $656k (exactly $655,910) JA Game Studio
Spell Disk older $14.99 965 89% 29k $434k (exactly $433,960) Sunpeak Games
Soulbound: Online · EA $14.99 562 58% 17k $253k (exactly $252,731) SpiderWare
Desktop Survivors 98 $4.99 1,338 94% 40k $200k (exactly $200,299) Brandon Hesslau
Survivors of the Dawn · EA older $7.99 694 73% 21k $166k (exactly $166,352) indieGiant
Net.Attack() - Code or Die! $7.99 510 80% 15k $122k (exactly $122,247) ByteRockers' Games
Hand of Fate: Hordes · EA $11.99 312 79% 9.4k $112k (exactly $112,226) Spitfire Interactive
Stolen Realm Survivors $9.99 150 64% 4.5k $45k (exactly $44,955) Burst2Flame Games
SHRIMP GAME: OVERKRILL $11.99 93 89% 2.8k $33k (exactly $33,452) GasGod Games, GLUE MAN
Loot Frog $6.89 153 79% 4.6k $32k (exactly $31,625) Clumsy Dog

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.