Do I ship it?

Games › RPG › RPG + Bullet Heaven

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bullet Heaven RPG?

RPG + Bullet Heaven

Of 120 developers who shipped a Bullet Heaven RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 156 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.3k, ×15 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $940k, ×1506 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 156 games are announced against 91 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 14.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 156 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Bullet Heaven
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 120
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $369k → $166k → $29k → $25k → $78k → $33k → $3.7k (still earning) → $1.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Bullet Heaven: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 120
Bottom 30% $1.4k (exactly $1,439)
Median $9.3k (exactly $9,348)
Top 25% $81k (exactly $81,287)
Top 5% $946k (exactly $945,719)
Developers, 2 yr 120
Released games 174
Announced 156
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 215% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Bullet Heaven
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Bullet Heaven; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action Roguelike, Action, Roguelike
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 3D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 84,224 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $9.3k, 1 in 4 over $81k, 1 in 20 over $940k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 4 in 10 of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 156 games are announced against 91 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Neon Abyss 2020 · $19M Soulstone Survivors 2025 · $12M Halls of Torment 2024 · $6.1M Death Must Die 2023 · EA · $4.4M 20 Minutes Till Dawn 2023 · $4.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Neon Abyss older $31.49 19,709 86% 591k $19M (exactly $18,619,092) Veewo Games
Soulstone Survivors $14.99 25,749 91% 772k $12M (exactly $11,579,325) Game Smithing Limited
Halls of Torment $6.66 30,752 95% 923k $6.1M (exactly $6,144,250) Chasing Carrots
Death Must Die · EA older $6.99 20,937 90% 628k $4.4M (exactly $4,390,489) Realm Archive
20 Minutes Till Dawn older $4.99 27,872 90% 836k $4.2M (exactly $4,172,438) flanne
Rogue: Genesia $14.99 8,111 90% 243k $3.6M (exactly $3,647,517) Ouadi Huard
Jotunnslayer: Hordes of Hel $14.99 7,318 82% 220k $3.3M (exactly $3,290,905) Games Farm, ARTillery
Nordic Ashes: Survivors of Ragnarok older $9.99 6,180 88% 185k $1.9M (exactly $1,852,146) Noxfall Studios
WARRIORS: Abyss $24.99 2,015 85% 60k $1.5M (exactly $1,510,646) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Wanderburg · EA $14.99 2,103 78% 63k $946k (exactly $945,719) Randwerk
Vampire Hunters $14.99 1,941 89% 58k $873k (exactly $872,868) Gamecraft Studios
Conquest Dark · EA $9.99 2,530 89% 76k $758k (exactly $758,241) Eldritch Sword Games
Arms of God · EA $11.50 1,871 88% 56k $645k (exactly $645,495) Dark Jay Studio
Hell Maiden · EA $9.99 1,834 90% 55k $550k (exactly $549,650) AstralShift

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.