Do I ship it?

Games › Action RPG › Action RPG + Bullet Heaven

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bullet Heaven Action RPG?

Action RPG + Bullet Heaven

Of 77 developers who shipped a Bullet Heaven Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 91 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $25k, ×17 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.2M, ×2197 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 91 games are announced against 53 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 16.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 91 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Bullet Heaven
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 77
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $369k → $162k → $15k → $63k → $121k → $33k → $6.3k (still earning) → $9.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Bullet Heaven: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 77
Bottom 30% $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Median $25k (exactly $25,352)
Top 25% $312k (exactly $311,860)
Top 5% $3.3M (exactly $3,290,905)
Developers, 2 yr 77
Released games 116
Announced 91
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Bullet Heaven
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG, Bullet Heaven; nearly all of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 3D, Isometric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 96,085 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.6k, median $25k, 1 in 4 over $310k, 1 in 20 over $3.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.6k. 4 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 91 games are announced against 53 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds44 devs · median $23k · 78 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Soulstone Survivors 2025 · $12M Yet Another Zombie Survivors 2026 · $6.4M Halls of Torment 2024 · $6.1M Death Must Die 2023 · EA · $4.4M Jotunnslayer: Hordes of Hel 2025 · $3.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Soulstone Survivors $14.99 25,749 91% 772k $12M (exactly $11,579,325) Game Smithing Limited
Yet Another Zombie Survivors $14.99 14,123 91% 424k $6.4M (exactly $6,351,113) Awesome Games Studio
Halls of Torment $6.66 30,752 95% 923k $6.1M (exactly $6,144,250) Chasing Carrots
Death Must Die · EA older $6.99 20,937 90% 628k $4.4M (exactly $4,390,489) Realm Archive
Jotunnslayer: Hordes of Hel $14.99 7,318 82% 220k $3.3M (exactly $3,290,905) Games Farm, ARTillery
Tower of Babel: Survivors of Chaos $12.99 6,281 68% 188k $2.4M (exactly $2,447,706) NANOO
Nordic Ashes: Survivors of Ragnarok older $9.99 6,180 88% 185k $1.9M (exactly $1,852,146) Noxfall Studios
WARRIORS: Abyss $24.99 2,015 85% 60k $1.5M (exactly $1,510,646) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
R.I.P. - Reincarnation Insurance Program $14.99 2,727 76% 82k $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332) WarmCore Studio
Temtem: Swarm $12.99 2,487 77% 75k $969k (exactly $969,184) Crema, GGTech Studios
Wanderburg · EA $14.99 2,103 78% 63k $946k (exactly $945,719) Randwerk
Conquest Dark · EA $9.99 2,530 89% 76k $758k (exactly $758,241) Eldritch Sword Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.