Do I ship it?

Games › Bullet Heaven › Bullet Heaven + Shoot 'Em Up

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bullet Heaven Shoot 'Em Up?

Bullet Heaven + Shoot 'Em Up

Of 81 developers who shipped a Bullet Heaven Shoot 'Em Up in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 112 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×4.9 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $510k, ×1078 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 112 games are announced against 55 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 112 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bullet Heaven + Shoot 'Em Up
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 81
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $62k → $16k → $6.1k → $9.7k → $12k → $1.8k (still earning) → $539 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bullet Heaven + Shoot 'Em Up: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 81
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $2.3k (exactly $2,307)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,665)
Top 5% $512k (exactly $512,045)
Developers, 2 yr 81
Released games 127
Announced 112
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 105% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bullet Heaven
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Bullet Heaven, Shoot 'Em Up; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, Pixel Graphics, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 35,552 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.3k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $510k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 112 games are announced against 55 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bullet Heaven with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Online Co-OpStrong odds27 devs · median $9.3k · 38 announced
  2. + Class-BasedFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 38 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  4. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds19 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  5. + Action RPGPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced
  6. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds21 devs · median $17k · 53 announced
  7. + LootPoor odds54 devs · median $14k · 100 announced
  8. + Tower DefensePoor odds29 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  9. + Twin Stick ShooterPoor odds51 devs · median $11k · 57 announced
  10. + ZombiesPoor odds22 devs · median $11k · 40 announced
  11. + RPGPoor odds120 devs · median $9.3k · 156 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds70 devs · median $8.3k · 97 announced

All 48 pairs on the Bullet Heaven page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

BALL x PIT 2025 · $11M 20 Minutes Till Dawn 2023 · $4.2M R.I.P. - Reincarnation Insurance Program 2026 · $1.2M Greedland 2025 · $1.1M I Am Legion: Stand Survivors 2025 · $656k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BALL x PIT $14.99 24,714 95% 741k $11M (exactly $11,113,886) Kenny Sun and Friends
20 Minutes Till Dawn older $4.99 27,872 90% 836k $4.2M (exactly $4,172,438) flanne
R.I.P. - Reincarnation Insurance Program $14.99 2,727 76% 82k $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332) WarmCore Studio
Greedland $12.99 2,919 83% 88k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,534) VaMP He
I Am Legion: Stand Survivors $8.99 2,432 82% 73k $656k (exactly $655,910) JA Game Studio
Bounty of One older $6.99 2,749 88% 82k $576k (exactly $576,465) OptizOnion
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC
Spell Disk older $14.99 965 89% 29k $434k (exactly $433,960) Sunpeak Games
The Knight Witch older $19.99 643 72% 19k $386k (exactly $385,607) Super Mega Team
Time Wasters older $4.99 2,549 88% 76k $382k (exactly $381,585) Proton Studio
Crafty Survivors $11.99 712 83% 21k $256k (exactly $256,106) Flannel Bear Games
Genome Guardian 2 · EA $15.99 410 95% 12k $197k (exactly $196,677) Alpherior
Gigantes Ex Machina · EA $14.99 300 84% 9.0k $135k (exactly $134,910) AcrylByte, SEO INSEOK
Shape Shifter: Formations $14.99 269 91% 8.1k $121k (exactly $120,969) Castec Studios
Swarm Bunker: Lust Defense $9.99 386 88% 12k $116k (exactly $115,684) 001Studio-NSFW

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.