Do I ship it?

Games › Bullet Heaven › Bullet Heaven + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Bullet Heaven?

Bullet Heaven + Perma Death

Of 34 developers who shipped a Perma Death Bullet Heaven in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 74 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $310k, ×657 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 74 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 74 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bullet Heaven + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $84k → $864k → $6.7k → $3.6k → $599 → $299 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bullet Heaven + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $149 (exactly $149)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,594)
Top 5% $312k (exactly $311,860)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 50
Announced 74
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 285% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bullet Heaven
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Bullet Heaven, Perma Death; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Bullet Hell
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 5,413 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $310k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 74 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bullet Heaven with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Online Co-OpStrong odds27 devs · median $9.3k · 38 announced
  2. + Class-BasedFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 38 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  4. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds19 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  5. + Action RPGPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced
  6. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds21 devs · median $17k · 53 announced
  7. + LootPoor odds54 devs · median $14k · 100 announced
  8. + Tower DefensePoor odds29 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  9. + Twin Stick ShooterPoor odds51 devs · median $11k · 57 announced
  10. + ZombiesPoor odds22 devs · median $11k · 40 announced
  11. + RPGPoor odds120 devs · median $9.3k · 156 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds70 devs · median $8.3k · 97 announced

All 48 pairs on the Bullet Heaven page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Pathogenic 2026 · $1.2M Heretic's Fork 2023 · $928k God Of Weapons 2023 · $864k Spell Disk 2024 · $434k Ascend to ZERO 2026 · $312k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Pathogenic $9.99 4,145 92% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,242,256) Aberrant Labs
Heretic's Fork older $9.99 3,097 85% 93k $928k (exactly $928,171) 9FingerGames
God Of Weapons older $5.99 4,807 84% 144k $864k (exactly $863,818) Imagine Games
Spell Disk older $14.99 965 89% 29k $434k (exactly $433,960) Sunpeak Games
Ascend to ZERO $11.99 867 82% 26k $312k (exactly $311,860) Flyway Games, Inc.
Tower of Guns older $14.99 529 85% 16k $238k (exactly $237,891) Terrible Posture Games
Cursorblade older $4.99 1,005 85% 30k $150k (exactly $150,448) RealPeach
Seraph's Last Stand older $0.99 4,010 93% 120k $119k (exactly $119,097) Sad Socket
Infinite Tao older $3.99 852 79% 26k $102k (exactly $101,984) insomnia
Choo Choo Survivor older $4.99 563 85% 17k $84k (exactly $84,281) GTGD
Raining Blood: Hellfire $7.99 198 89% 5.9k $47k (exactly $47,461) TechBooh
Gunstoppable $12.49 58 81% 1.7k $22k (exactly $21,733) CAGE Studios
Hopeless Sea $11.99 27 81% 810 $9.7k (exactly $9,712) Potato Cat
Dino Tower Arena $3.99 44 100% 1.3k $5.3k (exactly $5,267) OsKkarz_
Vehicle No. 4 $6.99 23 86% 690 $4.8k (exactly $4,823) indiejoh
Cloudbreaker $12.99 12 91% 360 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) Ballast Games
Rustwing · EA $5.99 20 85% 600 $3.6k (exactly $3,594) Sleepy Crystal
SnekromancY $5.99 19 94% 570 $3.4k (exactly $3,414) Final Screw

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.