Do I ship it?

Games › Bullet Heaven › Bullet Heaven + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Incremental Bullet Heaven?

Bullet Heaven + Incremental

Of 39 developers who shipped an Incremental Bullet Heaven in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 94 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.7k, ×7.9 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $73k, ×155 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 94 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 94 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bullet Heaven + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 39
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $58k → $6.3k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bullet Heaven + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 39
Bottom 30% $538 (exactly $538)
Median $3.7k (exactly $3,742)
Top 25% $26k (exactly $25,517)
Top 5% $74k (exactly $73,814)
Developers, 2 yr 39
Released games 43
Announced 94
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 600% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bullet Heaven
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Bullet Heaven, Incremental; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Idler, Strategy, Action
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $6.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $6.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 5,737 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $3.7k, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $73k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. None of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 94 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bullet Heaven with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Online Co-OpStrong odds27 devs · median $9.3k · 38 announced
  2. + Class-BasedFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 38 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  4. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds19 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  5. + Action RPGPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced
  6. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds21 devs · median $17k · 53 announced
  7. + LootPoor odds54 devs · median $14k · 100 announced
  8. + Tower DefensePoor odds29 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  9. + Twin Stick ShooterPoor odds51 devs · median $11k · 57 announced
  10. + ZombiesPoor odds22 devs · median $11k · 40 announced
  11. + RPGPoor odds120 devs · median $9.3k · 156 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds70 devs · median $8.3k · 97 announced

All 48 pairs on the Bullet Heaven page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Astro Prospector 2025 · $482k BORE BLASTERS 2024 · $212k Rock Crusher 2025 · $74k Kin and Conquest 2026 · $60k Game of Grass 2025 · $58k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Astro Prospector $4.99 3,223 91% 97k $482k (exactly $482,483) Incrementalist
BORE BLASTERS older $9.99 709 80% 21k $212k (exactly $212,487) 8BitSkull
Rock Crusher $6.99 352 84% 11k $74k (exactly $73,814) Mini Fun Games
Kin and Conquest $9.99 199 73% 6.0k $60k (exactly $59,640) The Fox Knocks
Game of Grass $6.99 275 84% 8.3k $58k (exactly $57,668) Hipsterdufus
All Aboard! The Train Defense Express $4.99 379 84% 11k $57k (exactly $56,736) Likadev
DEFRAG $2.99 534 93% 16k $48k (exactly $47,900) BlueDot Studio
Antivirus PROTOCOL $4.99 313 87% 9.4k $47k (exactly $46,856) FIREHIVE Studio
Incrempire $6.99 167 68% 5.0k $35k (exactly $35,020) FMGames, Regnum Noctis
Loot Frog $6.89 153 79% 4.6k $32k (exactly $31,625) Clumsy Dog
Refence $5.99 142 77% 4.3k $26k (exactly $25,517) Muurou Tech

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.