Do I ship it?

Games › Bullet Heaven › Bullet Heaven + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Idler Bullet Heaven?

Bullet Heaven + Idler

Of 33 developers who shipped an Idler Bullet Heaven in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×3.8 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $73k, ×155 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 42 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 42 announced, ×1.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bullet Heaven + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $26k → $58k → $3.7k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bullet Heaven + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Top 25% $26k (exactly $25,517)
Top 5% $74k (exactly $73,814)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 35
Announced 42
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 480% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bullet Heaven
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Bullet Heaven, Idler; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Incremental, Action, Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $6.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $6.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 27,235 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $73k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 2 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bullet Heaven with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Online Co-OpStrong odds27 devs · median $9.3k · 38 announced
  2. + Class-BasedFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 38 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  4. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds19 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  5. + Action RPGPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced
  6. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds21 devs · median $17k · 53 announced
  7. + LootPoor odds54 devs · median $14k · 100 announced
  8. + Tower DefensePoor odds29 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  9. + Twin Stick ShooterPoor odds51 devs · median $11k · 57 announced
  10. + ZombiesPoor odds22 devs · median $11k · 40 announced
  11. + RPGPoor odds120 devs · median $9.3k · 156 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds70 devs · median $8.3k · 97 announced

All 48 pairs on the Bullet Heaven page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

BALL x PIT 2025 · $11M Rock Crusher 2025 · $74k Kin and Conquest 2026 · $60k Game of Grass 2025 · $58k All Aboard! The Train Defense Express 2025 · $57k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BALL x PIT $14.99 24,714 95% 741k $11M (exactly $11,113,886) Kenny Sun and Friends
Rock Crusher $6.99 352 84% 11k $74k (exactly $73,814) Mini Fun Games
Kin and Conquest $9.99 199 73% 6.0k $60k (exactly $59,640) The Fox Knocks
Game of Grass $6.99 275 84% 8.3k $58k (exactly $57,668) Hipsterdufus
All Aboard! The Train Defense Express $4.99 379 84% 11k $57k (exactly $56,736) Likadev
DEFRAG $2.99 534 93% 16k $48k (exactly $47,900) BlueDot Studio
Antivirus PROTOCOL $4.99 313 87% 9.4k $47k (exactly $46,856) FIREHIVE Studio
Incrempire $6.99 167 68% 5.0k $35k (exactly $35,020) FMGames, Regnum Noctis
Refence $5.99 142 77% 4.3k $26k (exactly $25,517) Muurou Tech
Incremental Infinity $4.99 160 58% 4.8k $24k (exactly $23,952) Rablo Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.