Do I ship it?

Games › Gun Customization › Gun Customization + Bullet Heaven

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gun Customization Bullet Heaven?

Gun Customization + Bullet Heaven

Of 28 developers who shipped a Gun Customization Bullet Heaven in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 53 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $530k, ×851 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 53 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 53 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Gun Customization + Bullet Heaven
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $84k → $3.0k → $352k → $2.3k → $628 → $449 (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Gun Customization + Bullet Heaven: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $21,733)
Top 5% $534k (exactly $534,365)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 36
Announced 53
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 110% more developers than the period before.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Gun Customization
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Bullet Heaven
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Gun Customization, Bullet Heaven; all of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Bullet Hell
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 5,370 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $530k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 6 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 53 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Gun Customization with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Tower DefenseFair26 devs · median $958 · 32 announced
  2. + DystopianPoor odds16 devs · median $51k · 58 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds12 devs · median $25k · 44 announced
  4. + BuildingPoor odds13 devs · median $16k · 39 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds26 devs · median $14k · 55 announced
  6. + ModernPoor odds18 devs · median $14k · 38 announced
  7. + MilitaryPoor odds50 devs · median $13k · 126 announced
  8. + StealthPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds31 devs · median $11k · 92 announced
  10. + MechsPoor odds12 devs · median $11k · 32 announced
  11. + Resource ManagementPoor odds28 devs · median $11k · 71 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $9.1k · 64 announced

All 93 pairs on the Gun Customization page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

20 Minutes Till Dawn 2023 · $4.2M Wanderburg 2026 · EA · $946k NIMRODS 2024 · EA · $534k Wings of Seduction: Bust 'em out! 2024 · $352k Genome Guardian 2 2026 · EA · $197k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
20 Minutes Till Dawn older $4.99 27,872 90% 836k $4.2M (exactly $4,172,438) flanne
Wanderburg · EA $14.99 2,103 78% 63k $946k (exactly $945,719) Randwerk
NIMRODS · EA $9.99 1,783 85% 53k $534k (exactly $534,365) Fiveamp
Wings of Seduction: Bust 'em out! older $12.99 904 93% 27k $352k (exactly $352,289) Ramen Cat Studio
Genome Guardian 2 · EA $15.99 410 95% 12k $197k (exactly $196,677) Alpherior
Machick 2 $6.99 606 88% 18k $127k (exactly $127,078) DeadPixel
Choo Choo Survivor older $4.99 563 85% 17k $84k (exactly $84,281) GTGD
Machick older $6.99 208 84% 6.2k $44k (exactly $43,618) DeadPixel
Gunbot Diplomacy $4.99 186 86% 5.6k $28k (exactly $27,844) Sleepy Sentry
Wandness: WandCraft Survivor $6.99 107 74% 3.2k $22k (exactly $22,438) Knight Owl Games, Binary Lunar
Gunstoppable $12.49 58 81% 1.7k $22k (exactly $21,733) CAGE Studios
Chumini: Tiny Army $4.99 82 93% 2.5k $12k (exactly $12,275) Guilloteam
Vehicle No. 4 $6.99 23 86% 690 $4.8k (exactly $4,823) indiejoh
Cloudbreaker $12.99 12 91% 360 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) Ballast Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.