Do I ship it?

GamesBullet HeavenBullet Heaven + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Bullet Heaven?

Bullet Heaven + Female Protagonist

Of 28 developers who shipped a Female-Led Bullet Heaven in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.3k, ×9.1 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $310k, ×657 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 39 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 39 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bullet Heaven + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.7k → $19k → $1.8k (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bullet Heaven + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $4.3k (exactly $4,315)
Top 25% $49k (exactly $48,816)
Top 5% $312k (exactly $311,860)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 38
Announced 39
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 265% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bullet Heaven
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Bullet Heaven; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action Roguelike, Bullet Hell, Action
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 4,582 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $4.3k, 1 in 4 over $48k, 1 in 20 over $310k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 5 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bullet Heaven with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Online Co-OpStrong odds27 devs · median $9.3k · 38 announced
  2. + Class-BasedFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 38 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  4. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds19 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  5. + Action RPGPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced
  6. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds21 devs · median $17k · 53 announced
  7. + LootPoor odds54 devs · median $14k · 100 announced
  8. + Tower DefensePoor odds29 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  9. + Twin Stick ShooterPoor odds51 devs · median $11k · 57 announced
  10. + ZombiesPoor odds22 devs · median $11k · 40 announced
  11. + RPGPoor odds120 devs · median $9.3k · 156 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds70 devs · median $8.3k · 97 announced

All 48 pairs on the Bullet Heaven page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Picayune Dreams older $4.99 4,164 98% 125k $623k (exactly $623,351) Stepford, Andyland, milkypossum
Be My Horde · EA older $9.99 2,052 85% 62k $615k (exactly $614,984) Polished Games
Hell Maiden · EA $9.99 1,834 90% 55k $550k (exactly $549,650) AstralShift
The Knight Witch older $19.99 643 72% 19k $386k (exactly $385,607) Super Mega Team
Ascend to ZERO $11.99 867 82% 26k $312k (exactly $311,860) Flyway Games, Inc.
Eryi's Action older $4.99 882 89% 26k $132k (exactly $132,035) Xtal Sword
Internet Survivor Survivors $14.99 234 75% 7.0k $105k (exactly $105,230) ビートまりお / COOL&CREATE
Rhythm Witch: Beat Death $5.99 508 94% 15k $91k (exactly $91,288) Dusklight CO., LTD.
Maid Survivors : Little Angels · EA $8.99 268 93% 8.0k $72k (exactly $72,280) MilkEmpire
Second Stellar · EA $4.99 334 99% 10k $50k (exactly $50,000) Pepperlog
HSS:Reload $8.99 181 71% 5.4k $49k (exactly $48,816) SmokingBear Studio
After School Grounds (방과후운동장) $3.99 160 99% 4.8k $19k (exactly $19,152) After School Vtuber
Limitless Survivor $3.99 139 77% 4.2k $17k (exactly $16,638) Tam Lab
Parry Survivor $7.99 57 100% 1.7k $14k (exactly $13,663) Seal

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.