Do I ship it?

GamesOpen World Survival CraftOpen World Survival Craft + Building

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Building Open World Survival Craft?

Open World Survival Craft + Building

Of 112 developers who shipped a Building Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 251 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $71k, ×52 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $13k; 1 in 20 cleared $25M, ×18749 the market median. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 251 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 52.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 70% on the market, 251 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World Survival Craft + Building
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 112
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $40k → $7.5k → $181k → $195k → $31k → $179k → $139k (still earning) → $22k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World Survival Craft + Building: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 112
Bottom 30% $12k (exactly $12,406)
Median $71k (exactly $70,603)
Top 25% $1.1M (exactly $1,135,421)
Top 5% $25M (exactly $25,255,479)
Developers, 2 yr 112
Released games 363
Announced 251
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World Survival Craft
effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Open World Survival Craft, Building; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Exploration, Base Building
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 1,139,517 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $13k, median $71k, 1 in 4 over $1.1M, 1 in 20 over $25M.

3 in 10 developers made under $13k. 4 in 10 of the 43 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 251 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World Survival Craft with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  2. + Co-opPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  3. + Online Co-OpPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  4. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $183k · 37 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds8 devs · median $183k · 27 announced
  6. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  7. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $154k · 37 announced
  8. + ShooterPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds22 devs · median $125k · 56 announced
  10. + Sci-fiPoor odds32 devs · median $124k · 76 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 60 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced

All 54 pairs on the Open World Survival Craft page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rust older $39.99 1,167,920 87% 35M $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) Facepunch Studios
Valheim $29.99 464,893 94% 14M $418M (exactly $418,264,232) Iron Gate AB
Terraria older $9.99 1,240,388 97% 37M $372M (exactly $371,744,284) Re-Logic
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
The Forest older $19.99 581,431 95% 17M $349M (exactly $348,684,171) Endnight Games Ltd
Satisfactory older $39.99 234,993 97% 7.0M $282M (exactly $281,921,102) Coffee Stain Studios
Project Zomboid · EA older $24.99 364,830 94% 11M $274M (exactly $273,513,051) The Indie Stone
ARK: Survival Evolved older $14.99 586,768 83% 18M $264M (exactly $263,869,570) Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto… (Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto Studios, Virtual Basement LLC)
Raft older $19.99 323,481 93% 9.7M $194M (exactly $193,991,556) Redbeet Interactive
Dune: Awakening $49.99 66,844 71% 2.0M $100M (exactly $100,245,947) Funcom
Abiotic Factor $34.99 42,075 95% 1.3M $44M (exactly $44,166,128) Deep Field Games
Windrose · EA $29.99 47,893 86% 1.4M $43M (exactly $43,089,332) Kraken Express
RuneScape: Dragonwilds $29.99 28,071 81% 842k $25M (exactly $25,255,479) Jagex Ltd
Dinkum $19.99 24,641 92% 739k $15M (exactly $14,777,208) James Bendon
Necesse $14.99 24,425 93% 733k $11M (exactly $10,983,922) Fair Games ApS
Voidtrain $29.99 8,713 73% 261k $7.8M (exactly $7,839,086) HypeTrain Digital
MISERY $12.99 20,015 85% 600k $7.8M (exactly $7,799,846) Platypus Entertainment

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.