Do I ship it?

GamesBoxingBoxing + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Boxing game?

Boxing + Sci-fi

Only 8 developers shipped a Sci-fi Boxing game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Spirit X Strike, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 8 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $300 against a market of $630. 8 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 8 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Boxing + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Boxing + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $86k (exactly $86,357)
Top 5% $158k (exactly $158,218)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 29
Announced 8
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Boxing
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Boxing
Price point
$10.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 1,103 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $300, 1 in 4 over $86k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 8 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Boxing with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  2. + SimulationFair39 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  3. + StrategyPoor odds12 devs · median $4.5k · 21 announced
  4. + FightingPoor odds16 devs · median $4.2k · 26 announced
  5. + 2D FighterPoor odds14 devs · median $1.4k · 23 announced
  6. + Martial ArtsPoor odds30 devs · median $1.4k · 47 announced
  7. + AdventurePoor odds18 devs · median $1.3k · 24 announced
  8. + SportsPoor odds61 devs · median $898 · 62 announced
  9. + ActionPoor odds65 devs · median $719 · 84 announced
  10. + CombatPoor odds49 devs · median $719 · 70 announced
  11. + PvPPoor odds16 devs · median $718 · 38 announced
  12. + PhysicsPoor odds14 devs · median $718 · 27 announced

All 24 pairs on the Boxing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Spirit X Strike · EA $12.99 406 82% 12k $158k (exactly $158,218) MAICHA STUDIO
Thunder Ray older $14.99 270 71% 8.1k $121k (exactly $121,419) Purple Tree S R L
Voltage High Society $19.99 144 92% 4.3k $86k (exactly $86,357) Platonic Partnership
A.D. 2047 older $19.99 79 62% 2.4k $47k (exactly $47,376) Leenzee Games
Dance Collider older $4.99 169 80% 5.1k $25k (exactly $25,299) emergeWorlds
Sportvida CyberDash $19.99 7 85% 210 $4.2k (exactly $4,198) ible Sportvida
Shadow BoXR · EA older $9.99 14 100% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) 3Pupper Studios
Sucker Punch VR older $19.99 6 83% 180 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) AR Glimpse, LLC
Punchout: Music · EA older $14.99 2 100% 60 $899 (exactly $899) Officeu Co., Ltd.
Sock It older $4.99 6 100% 180 $898 (exactly $898) Maskii Productions
Odania Sports Arena $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Odania GmbH
Donut Riders · EA $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) OUTRISE studios
Test Subject $0.99 2 50% 60 $59 (exactly $59) Autonomous Tree
FISTAGON $10.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Virtual Dawn
Cyber Boxing Arena $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) JJTW Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.